R. Mark Clayton
2019-09-09 09:46:43 UTC
Boris is seeing Varadker today.
The main theme is that he would throw the ten DUP MP's under a bus, just like the score of old hands callously dumped from his own party.
He then goes for the "border in the Irish Sea" solution.
Free trade continues Northern Ireland which remains within the customs union - so no back stop and no infrastructure.
Minor triage of goods required at about a dozen GB and NI ports and airports, mostly already set up with customs facilities (e.g. Liverpool and LHR / LGW / MAN).
Likely to be OK with the EU if Ireland is on board. Fiscal effects are a pin prick compared to the EU GDP and budget.
So what would happen in parliament?
Well the DUP would quit their confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories and vote against.
A handful of last ditch ERG members would also oppose such a deal.
Some of the current Tory rebels would support such a deal or at least abstain.
Possibly enough rebel Labour MP's from heavily Leave areas would support such a deal or at least abstain in order to bring this mess to an end and keep their seats.
For Boris - Bingo! He leaves with a deal, calls a general election and sees off all his opponents.
For the DUP - nemesis - they over played their hand, extorted £1 billion, opposed the big Remain majority in NI and possibly / probably an Alliance majority in NI in the GE. Arlene Foster would have to resign, putting the Assembly back on track. Plus of course NI inches closer to a united Ireland. Will anyone feel sorry for the DUP?
Of course Boris will then have to deal with the resulting recession, but it won't be as bad as from a hard Brexit. Some GB firms might even relocate to NI and its EU access and 15% corporation tax...