Discussion:
British manufacturing would benefit
(too old to reply)
Phi
2018-01-12 07:48:15 UTC
Permalink
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.

An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.

Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.

Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.

"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
R. Mark Clayton
2018-01-12 09:49:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only hurt their trade with the UK - things will be the same with every other country.

Of course for the UK it will be like this for trade with every EU member (half of ours) and we would lose trade deals the EU has with sixty odd other countries (e.g. Canada, Turkey etc.)

If it would cost Germany 14k jobs, just in automotive to lose [free] trade with the UK, how many will the UK lose?
tim...
2018-01-12 11:37:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only hurt their trade
with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs

tim
pamela
2018-01-12 13:53:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs
and a lasting devaluation of the pound could cause thousands
of job losses at German automotive suppliers, a study by
accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the
single market and customs union could threaten as many as
14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink
their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the study
published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European
Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing
nearly a fifth of all components used in UK-based car
production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros
in sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains
and raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-
could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only hurt
their trade with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
German car workers can easily find alternative work. The German
economy is positively booming. 2017 was the best year for
economic growth in six years and German unemployment it at record
low - the lowest since reunification in 1990.

In fact, out of work Brits should consider working there before
Brexit make it too hard.

I've never seen a single news item on German telly, which I often
watch, about German job losses from Brexit. They aren't worried
about it.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
R. Mark Clayton
2018-01-12 16:36:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only hurt their trade
with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
James Harris
2018-01-12 17:30:15 UTC
Permalink
...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only hurt their trade
with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
You are clutching at straws.

First, the 500,000 figure is discredited. It first appeared in the
Treasury forecast and has already been shown to be grossly pessimistic
and biassed.

Second, there may be some job losses on both sides or, at least, a
reduction in growth. That will, frankly, be up to the EU. And, if that
happens, yes, the UK will be hardest hit. But the UK will have options
that the EU side does not. And if managed well, the UK should be able to
make up the losses more quickly and then overtake where it would have
been if we had stayed in.

You need to consider what's best for the long term, not just focus
always on the short term.
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-13 11:42:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
...
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only
hurt their trade with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
You are clutching at straws.
First, the 500,000 figure is discredited. It first appeared in
the Treasury forecast and has already been shown to be grossly
pessimistic and biassed.
I guess you mean the 50,000 figure. Can you show where this has
been shown to be "grossly pessimistic and biased".
Post by James Harris
Second, there may be some job losses on both sides or, at least,
a reduction in growth. That will, frankly, be up to the EU. And,
if that happens, yes, the UK will be hardest hit. But the UK
will have options that the EU side does not.
Similarly the EU will have options the UK lacks.
Post by James Harris
And if managed well, the UK should be able to make up the losses
more quickly
More quickly than what? Than the EU?
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to happen? Or
is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
Post by James Harris
You need to consider what's best for the long term, not just
focus always on the short term.
Brexiteers seem at their comfortable when talking about the long
term because they can make almost any claim about that time frame
and no one can actually prove it is wrong.

In fact, the long term could also turn out to be very bad and this
is more likely than not.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
James Harris
2018-01-14 17:34:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
...
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only
hurt their trade with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
You are clutching at straws.
First, the 500,000 figure is discredited. It first appeared in
the Treasury forecast and has already been shown to be grossly
pessimistic and biassed.
I guess you mean the 50,000 figure. Can you show where this has
been shown to be "grossly pessimistic and biased".
Sure, lots of ways. E.g. we were told:

Treasury analysis suggests GDP could be 3.6% lower by 2018 than
otherwise if Britons vote to leave EU on 23 June. Unemployment seen at
500,000 higher. With exactly one month to go to the referendum, the
British people must ask themselves this question: can we knowingly vote
for a recession? Does Britain really want this DIY recession? Because
that's what the evidence shows we'll get if we vote to leave the EU"
said George Osborne.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-create-instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html


"Britain's economy grew faster than previously thought in the three
months after the EU referendum, underlining the miscalculations by the
Treasury and other forecasters who predicted that the UK would suffer a
recession following a vote for Brexit."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/23/uk-gdp-growth-brexit-industrial-services-construction-wages
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Second, there may be some job losses on both sides or, at least,
a reduction in growth. That will, frankly, be up to the EU. And,
if that happens, yes, the UK will be hardest hit. But the UK
will have options that the EU side does not.
Similarly the EU will have options the UK lacks.
But no more than it has now. It won't gain any options by the Brexit
process. We will.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
And if managed well, the UK should be able to make up the losses
more quickly
More quickly than what? Than the EU?
Um, that could have been clearer: I think I meant that IMO the UK will
be able to increase employment and trade more quickly than it would have
been able to had it remained in the EU. In short, once Brexit takes hold
we'll be able to grow more quickly than we can now.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to happen? Or
is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so I don't rely
on them but the ones I do find useful are those which are pessimistic
about Brexit. In simple terms my reasoning is that we should do better
than (or at least as well as) the worst outcome forecast by the
pessimistic ones. In other words, they show the worst case and they are
known to be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low bound on what
should happen. And I think you've seen before that even the pessimistic
ones show the UK growing well post Brexit, AFTER an initial period of
flatlining or slow growth.

A good example, or at least one that I have a graph for, is this:

Loading Image...

Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the SAME
growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a lower base. Now,
consider that their projection is primarily about our EU trade only.
They did _not_ factor in the UK making new trade deals.

Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line OUTSIDE the EU
should be greater than their graph suggests. That difference will, if
followed, obviously make us better off in the long term than we would
have been if we had stayed in the EU.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
You need to consider what's best for the long term, not just
focus always on the short term.
Brexiteers seem at their comfortable when talking about the long
term because they can make almost any claim about that time frame
and no one can actually prove it is wrong.
Well, don't forget that I said we'd be worse off in the short term so I
_am_ talking about both. It annoyed me pre referendum when Remainers
kept saying Brexit would make us worse off, without them qualifying what
they were saying. Yes, it WOULD probably make us worse off in the short
term. But the increased growth _rate_ as we regained direct access to
global markets should make us better off in the long term.
Post by pamela
In fact, the long term could also turn out to be very bad and this
is more likely than not.
I'll give you one point on that: if we get a government which messes
things up then, yes, things could be bad in the long term. We could get
a bad government anyway, of course, but because Brexit gives the UK
government more power it gives them more chances to use it for good or ill.
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-14 21:08:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
...
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only
hurt their trade with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
You are clutching at straws.
First, the 500,000 figure is discredited. It first appeared in
the Treasury forecast and has already been shown to be grossly
pessimistic and biassed.
I guess you mean the 50,000 figure. Can you show where this
has been shown to be "grossly pessimistic and biased".
Treasury analysis suggests GDP could be 3.6% lower by 2018 than
otherwise if Britons vote to leave EU on 23 June. Unemployment
seen at 500,000 higher. With exactly one month to go to the
referendum, the British people must ask themselves this
question: can we knowingly vote for a recession? Does Britain
really want this DIY recession? Because that's what the evidence
shows we'll get if we vote to leave the EU" said George Osborne.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-create-
instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html
"Britain's economy grew faster than previously thought in the
three months after the EU referendum, underlining the
miscalculations by the Treasury and other forecasters who
predicted that the UK would suffer a recession following a vote
for Brexit."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/23/uk-gdp-growth-br
exit-industrial-services-construction-wages
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Second, there may be some job losses on both sides or, at
least, a reduction in growth. That will, frankly, be up to the
EU. And, if that happens, yes, the UK will be hardest hit. But
the UK will have options that the EU side does not.
Similarly the EU will have options the UK lacks.
But no more than it has now. It won't gain any options by the
Brexit process. We will.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
And if managed well, the UK should be able to make up the
losses more quickly
More quickly than what? Than the EU?
Um, that could have been clearer: I think I meant that IMO the
UK will be able to increase employment and trade more quickly
than it would have been able to had it remained in the EU. In
short, once Brexit takes hold we'll be able to grow more quickly
than we can now.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to happen?
Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so I
don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those which
are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my reasoning is
that we should do better than (or at least as well as) the worst
outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones. In other words, they
show the worst case and they are known to be too gloomy. So they
effectively set a low bound on what should happen. And I think
you've seen before that even the pessimistic ones show the UK
growing well post Brexit, AFTER an initial period of flatlining
or slow growth.
A good example, or at least one that I have a graph for, is
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-brexit-forec
asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a lower
base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily about our
EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK making new trade
deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line OUTSIDE
the EU should be greater than their graph suggests. That
difference will, if followed, obviously make us better off in
the long term than we would have been if we had stayed in the
EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly sincere
your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of statistics
follows the great British tradition of having a go.

I agree not all published data is well-represented and some of it can
be misleading but your other-worldiness when it comes to this area is
too strange for me.

I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings and
construct an alternative world which is self-referring and complete.
Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend time trying to second
guess your illusions or skewed outlook and correct them. Believe
what you will. Just move along.
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
You need to consider what's best for the long term, not just
focus always on the short term.
Brexiteers seem at their comfortable when talking about the
long term because they can make almost any claim about that
time frame and no one can actually prove it is wrong.
Well, don't forget that I said we'd be worse off in the short
term so I _am_ talking about both. It annoyed me pre referendum
when Remainers kept saying Brexit would make us worse off,
without them qualifying what they were saying. Yes, it WOULD
probably make us worse off in the short term. But the increased
growth _rate_ as we regained direct access to global markets
should make us better off in the long term.
Post by pamela
In fact, the long term could also turn out to be very bad and
this is more likely than not.
I'll give you one point on that: if we get a government which
messes things up then, yes, things could be bad in the long
term. We could get a bad government anyway, of course, but
because Brexit gives the UK government more power it gives them
more chances to use it for good or ill.
I was referring to Tim's comment that "50,000 lost jobs is still a
lot of lost jobs". I have no idea what you are referring to.

Message-ID: <p3a6o7$6aj$***@dont-email.me>
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
James Harris
2018-01-15 22:05:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
...
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only
hurt their trade with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
You are clutching at straws.
First, the 500,000 figure is discredited. It first appeared in
the Treasury forecast and has already been shown to be grossly
pessimistic and biassed.
I guess you mean the 50,000 figure. Can you show where this
has been shown to be "grossly pessimistic and biased".
Treasury analysis suggests GDP could be 3.6% lower by 2018 than
otherwise if Britons vote to leave EU on 23 June. Unemployment
seen at 500,000 higher. With exactly one month to go to the
referendum, the British people must ask themselves this
question: can we knowingly vote for a recession? Does Britain
really want this DIY recession? Because that's what the evidence
shows we'll get if we vote to leave the EU" said George Osborne.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-create-
instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html
"Britain's economy grew faster than previously thought in the
three months after the EU referendum, underlining the
miscalculations by the Treasury and other forecasters who
predicted that the UK would suffer a recession following a vote
for Brexit."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/23/uk-gdp-growth-br
exit-industrial-services-construction-wages
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Second, there may be some job losses on both sides or, at
least, a reduction in growth. That will, frankly, be up to the
EU. And, if that happens, yes, the UK will be hardest hit. But
the UK will have options that the EU side does not.
Similarly the EU will have options the UK lacks.
But no more than it has now. It won't gain any options by the
Brexit process. We will.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
And if managed well, the UK should be able to make up the
losses more quickly
More quickly than what? Than the EU?
Um, that could have been clearer: I think I meant that IMO the
UK will be able to increase employment and trade more quickly
than it would have been able to had it remained in the EU. In
short, once Brexit takes hold we'll be able to grow more quickly
than we can now.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to happen?
Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so I
don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those which
are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my reasoning is
that we should do better than (or at least as well as) the worst
outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones. In other words, they
show the worst case and they are known to be too gloomy. So they
effectively set a low bound on what should happen. And I think
you've seen before that even the pessimistic ones show the UK
growing well post Brexit, AFTER an initial period of flatlining
or slow growth.
A good example, or at least one that I have a graph for, is
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-brexit-forec
asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a lower
base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily about our
EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK making new trade
deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line OUTSIDE
the EU should be greater than their graph suggests. That
difference will, if followed, obviously make us better off in
the long term than we would have been if we had stayed in the
EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly sincere
your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of statistics
follows the great British tradition of having a go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you asserted it.

I don't remember us discussing statistics other than reporting what
others have said - which requires no understanding.
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some of it can
be misleading but your other-worldiness when it comes to this area is
too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings and
construct an alternative world which is self-referring and complete.
Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend time trying to second
guess your illusions or skewed outlook and correct them. Believe
what you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to discuss but let's
not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that it's beneath your dignity to
respond. Or I might begin to think you have run out of argument. I
notice you did not respond to the above simple logical argument.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
You need to consider what's best for the long term, not just
focus always on the short term.
Brexiteers seem at their comfortable when talking about the
long term because they can make almost any claim about that
time frame and no one can actually prove it is wrong.
Well, don't forget that I said we'd be worse off in the short
term so I _am_ talking about both. It annoyed me pre referendum
when Remainers kept saying Brexit would make us worse off,
without them qualifying what they were saying. Yes, it WOULD
probably make us worse off in the short term. But the increased
growth _rate_ as we regained direct access to global markets
should make us better off in the long term.
Post by pamela
In fact, the long term could also turn out to be very bad and
this is more likely than not.
I'll give you one point on that: if we get a government which
messes things up then, yes, things could be bad in the long
term. We could get a bad government anyway, of course, but
because Brexit gives the UK government more power it gives them
more chances to use it for good or ill.
I was referring to Tim's comment that "50,000 lost jobs is still a
lot of lost jobs". I have no idea what you are referring to.
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-16 00:19:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by R. Mark Clayton
news:6f33ac70-4ddb-4f3a-9810-9dfa56706e63
@googlegroups.com.
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by R. Mark Clayton
..
Post by R. Mark Clayton
...
Indeed - quite damaging for Germany, but Brexit will only
hurt their trade with the UK
50,000 lost jobs is still a lot of lost jobs
tim
Yes, but only about a tenth of the likely loss in the UK...
You are clutching at straws.
First, the 500,000 figure is discredited. It first appeared
in the Treasury forecast and has already been shown to be
grossly pessimistic and biassed.
I guess you mean the 50,000 figure. Can you show where this
has been shown to be "grossly pessimistic and biased".
Treasury analysis suggests GDP could be 3.6% lower by 2018
than otherwise if Britons vote to leave EU on 23 June.
Unemployment seen at 500,000 higher. With exactly one month to
go to the referendum, the British people must ask themselves
this question: can we knowingly vote for a recession? Does
Britain really want this DIY recession? Because that's what
the evidence shows we'll get if we vote to leave the EU" said
George Osborne.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-
creat
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
e- instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html
"Britain's economy grew faster than previously thought in the
three months after the EU referendum, underlining the
miscalculations by the Treasury and other forecasters who
predicted that the UK would suffer a recession following a
vote for Brexit."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/23/uk-gdp-
growth-
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
br exit-industrial-services-construction-wages
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Second, there may be some job losses on both sides or, at
least, a reduction in growth. That will, frankly, be up to
the EU. And, if that happens, yes, the UK will be hardest
hit. But the UK will have options that the EU side does not.
Similarly the EU will have options the UK lacks.
But no more than it has now. It won't gain any options by the
Brexit process. We will.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
And if managed well, the UK should be able to make up the
losses more quickly
More quickly than what? Than the EU?
Um, that could have been clearer: I think I meant that IMO the
UK will be able to increase employment and trade more quickly
than it would have been able to had it remained in the EU. In
short, once Brexit takes hold we'll be able to grow more
quickly than we can now.
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to happen?
Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so I
don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those
which are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my
reasoning is that we should do better than (or at least as
well as) the worst outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones.
In other words, they show the worst case and they are known to
be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low bound on what
should happen. And I think you've seen before that even the
pessimistic ones show the UK growing well post Brexit, AFTER
an initial period of flatlining or slow growth.
A good example, or at least one that I have a graph for, is
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forec asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a
lower base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily
about our EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK
making new trade deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line
OUTSIDE the EU should be greater than their graph suggests.
That difference will, if followed, obviously make us better
off in the long term than we would have been if we had stayed
in the EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly
sincere your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of
statistics follows the great British tradition of having a go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you asserted it.
I don't remember us discussing statistics other than reporting
what others have said - which requires no understanding.
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some of
it can be misleading but your other-worldiness when it comes to
this area is too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings
and construct an alternative world which is self-referring and
complete. Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend time
trying to second guess your illusions or skewed outlook and
correct them. Believe what you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to discuss
but let's not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that it's
beneath your dignity to respond. Or I might begin to think you
have run out of argument. I notice you did not respond to the
above simple logical argument.
Your fascination and repeated account shows the simple view you
must have had before learning of these ways of the world.
Meanwhile, most other people knew this already. It's not some
deep insight except to you. I seem to recall you give a
commentary on the detailed steps to your enlightenment and ew
found insight on your web site.
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
You need to consider what's best for the long term, not just
focus always on the short term.
Brexiteers seem at their comfortable when talking about the
long term because they can make almost any claim about that
time frame and no one can actually prove it is wrong.
Well, don't forget that I said we'd be worse off in the short
term so I _am_ talking about both. It annoyed me pre
referendum when Remainers kept saying Brexit would make us
worse off, without them qualifying what they were saying. Yes,
it WOULD probably make us worse off in the short term. But the
increased growth _rate_ as we regained direct access to global
markets should make us better off in the long term.
Post by pamela
In fact, the long term could also turn out to be very bad and
this is more likely than not.
I'll give you one point on that: if we get a government which
messes things up then, yes, things could be bad in the long
term. We could get a bad government anyway, of course, but
because Brexit gives the UK government more power it gives
them more chances to use it for good or ill.
I was referring to Tim's comment that "50,000 lost jobs is
still a lot of lost jobs". I have no idea what you are
referring to.
James Harris
2018-01-16 17:39:07 UTC
Permalink
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to happen?
Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so I
don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those
which are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my
reasoning is that we should do better than (or at least as
well as) the worst outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones.
In other words, they show the worst case and they are known to
be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low bound on what
should happen. And I think you've seen before that even the
pessimistic ones show the UK growing well post Brexit, AFTER
an initial period of flatlining or slow growth.
A good example, or at least one that I have a graph for, is
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forec asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a
lower base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily
about our EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK
making new trade deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line
OUTSIDE the EU should be greater than their graph suggests.
That difference will, if followed, obviously make us better
off in the long term than we would have been if we had stayed
in the EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly
sincere your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of
statistics follows the great British tradition of having a go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you asserted it.
I don't remember us discussing statistics other than reporting
what others have said - which requires no understanding.
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some of
it can be misleading but your other-worldiness when it comes to
this area is too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings
and construct an alternative world which is self-referring and
complete. Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend time
trying to second guess your illusions or skewed outlook and
correct them. Believe what you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to discuss
but let's not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that it's
beneath your dignity to respond. Or I might begin to think you
have run out of argument. I notice you did not respond to the
above simple logical argument.
Your fascination and repeated account shows the simple view you
must have had before learning of these ways of the world.
Meanwhile, most other people knew this already. It's not some
deep insight except to you. I seem to recall you give a
commentary on the detailed steps to your enlightenment and ew
found insight on your web site.
That's more flummery, Pamela. You are attacking the simplicity of the
argument - and other things you don't like - but you are avoiding
engaging with the argument which says we can be expected to grow more
quickly outside the EU than we can inside.

And while you decry an argument being simple I see it as an asset. If
the conclusion of an argument is obvious then the explainer has done his
or her job well.
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-16 20:59:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to
happen? Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so
I don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those
which are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my
reasoning is that we should do better than (or at least as
well as) the worst outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones.
In other words, they show the worst case and they are known
to be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low bound on
what should happen. And I think you've seen before that even
the pessimistic ones show the UK growing well post Brexit,
AFTER an initial period of flatlining or slow growth.
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forec asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a
lower base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily
about our EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK
making new trade deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line
OUTSIDE the EU should be greater than their graph suggests.
That difference will, if followed, obviously make us better
off in the long term than we would have been if we had
stayed in the EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly
sincere your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of
statistics follows the great British tradition of having a
go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you
asserted it.
I don't remember us discussing statistics other than reporting
what others have said - which requires no understanding.
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some
of it can be misleading but your other-worldiness when it
comes to this area is too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings
and construct an alternative world which is self-referring
and complete. Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend
time trying to second guess your illusions or skewed outlook
and correct them. Believe what you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to discuss
but let's not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that it's
beneath your dignity to respond. Or I might begin to think you
have run out of argument. I notice you did not respond to the
above simple logical argument.
Your fascination and repeated account shows the simple view you
must have had before learning of these ways of the world.
Meanwhile, most other people knew this already. It's not some
deep insight except to you. I seem to recall you give a
commentary on the detailed steps to your enlightenment and ew
found insight on your web site.
That's more flummery, Pamela. You are attacking the simplicity
of the argument - and other things you don't like - but you are
avoiding engaging with the argument which says we can be
expected to grow more quickly outside the EU than we can inside.
And while you decry an argument being simple I see it as an
asset. If the conclusion of an argument is obvious then the
explainer has done his or her job well.
I'm not at all "attacking the simplicity of the argument". It is
simple and it is true. The point I am making is why something so
obvious causes you so much wonderment that you document your
observations and thinking of as well known as this in detail on
your web site.

I conclude it's because you were most probably naive about such
matters before finally learning of them and that doesn't reflect
well on your general understanding.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
James Harris
2018-01-18 08:35:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to
happen? Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so
I don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those
which are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my
reasoning is that we should do better than (or at least as
well as) the worst outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones.
In other words, they show the worst case and they are known
to be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low bound on
what should happen. And I think you've seen before that even
the pessimistic ones show the UK growing well post Brexit,
AFTER an initial period of flatlining or slow growth.
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forec asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a
lower base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily
about our EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK
making new trade deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line
OUTSIDE the EU should be greater than their graph suggests.
That difference will, if followed, obviously make us better
off in the long term than we would have been if we had
stayed in the EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly
sincere your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of
statistics follows the great British tradition of having a
go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you
asserted it.
I don't remember us discussing statistics other than reporting
what others have said - which requires no understanding.
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some
of it can be misleading but your other-worldiness when it
comes to this area is too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings
and construct an alternative world which is self-referring
and complete. Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend
time trying to second guess your illusions or skewed outlook
and correct them. Believe what you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to discuss
but let's not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that it's
beneath your dignity to respond. Or I might begin to think you
have run out of argument. I notice you did not respond to the
above simple logical argument.
Your fascination and repeated account shows the simple view you
must have had before learning of these ways of the world.
Meanwhile, most other people knew this already. It's not some
deep insight except to you. I seem to recall you give a
commentary on the detailed steps to your enlightenment and ew
found insight on your web site.
That's more flummery, Pamela. You are attacking the simplicity
of the argument - and other things you don't like - but you are
avoiding engaging with the argument which says we can be
expected to grow more quickly outside the EU than we can inside.
And while you decry an argument being simple I see it as an
asset. If the conclusion of an argument is obvious then the
explainer has done his or her job well.
I'm not at all "attacking the simplicity of the argument". It is
simple and it is true.
That sounds promising but, just to check, are you (finally) agreeing
that, given the reasoning presented, the UK /ought/ to grow more quickly
outside the EU, albeit from a lower initial position? If so, that's good
to hear.
Post by pamela
The point I am making is why something so
obvious causes you so much wonderment that you document your
observations and thinking of as well known as this in detail on
your web site.
I conclude it's because you were most probably naive about such
matters before finally learning of them and that doesn't reflect
well on your general understanding.
I don't know about that; I am not aware of a sense of wonder! Where I
might agree with you is that I know I do write in simple language. I am
not a natural communicator and if I try to write in subtle terms I find
when I read the prose back that it could be misunderstood or not
understood at all. So unless I am discussing with known fellow techies
who work in the same industry as me I do probably write as if for a
child to understand.
--
James Harris
Ophelia
2018-01-18 10:54:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to
happen? Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates so
I don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are those
which are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms my
reasoning is that we should do better than (or at least as
well as) the worst outcome forecast by the pessimistic ones.
In other words, they show the worst case and they are known
to be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low bound on
what should happen. And I think you've seen before that even
the pessimistic ones show the UK growing well post Brexit,
AFTER an initial period of flatlining or slow growth.
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forec asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has the
SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts from a
lower base. Now, consider that their projection is primarily
about our EU trade only. They did _not_ factor in the UK
making new trade deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line
OUTSIDE the EU should be greater than their graph suggests.
That difference will, if followed, obviously make us better
off in the long term than we would have been if we had
stayed in the EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly
sincere your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of
statistics follows the great British tradition of having a
go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you
asserted it.
I don't remember us discussing statistics other than reporting
what others have said - which requires no understanding.
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some
of it can be misleading but your other-worldiness when it
comes to this area is too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your misunderstandings
and construct an alternative world which is self-referring
and complete. Leave me out of it. It is not for me to spend
time trying to second guess your illusions or skewed outlook
and correct them. Believe what you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to discuss
but let's not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that it's
beneath your dignity to respond. Or I might begin to think you
have run out of argument. I notice you did not respond to the
above simple logical argument.
Your fascination and repeated account shows the simple view you
must have had before learning of these ways of the world.
Meanwhile, most other people knew this already. It's not some
deep insight except to you. I seem to recall you give a
commentary on the detailed steps to your enlightenment and ew
found insight on your web site.
That's more flummery, Pamela. You are attacking the simplicity
of the argument - and other things you don't like - but you are
avoiding engaging with the argument which says we can be
expected to grow more quickly outside the EU than we can inside.
And while you decry an argument being simple I see it as an
asset. If the conclusion of an argument is obvious then the
explainer has done his or her job well.
I'm not at all "attacking the simplicity of the argument". It is
simple and it is true.
That sounds promising but, just to check, are you (finally) agreeing
that, given the reasoning presented, the UK /ought/ to grow more quickly
outside the EU, albeit from a lower initial position? If so, that's good
to hear.
Post by pamela
The point I am making is why something so
obvious causes you so much wonderment that you document your
observations and thinking of as well known as this in detail on
your web site.
I conclude it's because you were most probably naive about such
matters before finally learning of them and that doesn't reflect
well on your general understanding.
I don't know about that; I am not aware of a sense of wonder! Where I
might agree with you is that I know I do write in simple language. I am
not a natural communicator and if I try to write in subtle terms I find
when I read the prose back that it could be misunderstood or not
understood at all. So unless I am discussing with known fellow techies
who work in the same industry as me I do probably write as if for a
child to understand.

James Harris

==

There is absolutely nothing wrong with the way you write. It is just his
way of putting you down. I thought you might have been used to it by now.

Ugh!
James Harris
2018-01-18 11:03:10 UTC
Permalink
On 18/01/2018 10:54, Ophelia wrote:

...
Post by Ophelia
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the way you write. It is just his
way of putting you down. I thought you might have been used to it by now.
Ugh!
Thanks, Ophelia. :)
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-18 12:53:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
and then overtake where it would have been if we
had stayed in.
Do you have any analysis to support this is likely to
happen? Or is it an unsubstantiated forecast?
As I've said to you before, forecasts are just estimates
so I don't rely on them but the ones I do find useful are
those which are pessimistic about Brexit. In simple terms
my reasoning is that we should do better than (or at least
as well as) the worst outcome forecast by the pessimistic
ones. In other words, they show the worst case and they
are known to be too gloomy. So they effectively set a low
bound on what should happen. And I think you've seen
before that even the pessimistic ones show the UK growing
well post Brexit, AFTER an initial period of flatlining or
slow growth.
A good example, or at least one that I have a graph for,
http://pensites.com/politics/direct_media/pwc-uk-gdp-
brexit-forec asts-2016-03.png
Note that their most pessimistic forecast eventually has
the SAME growthrate as their Remain one. It just starts
from a lower base. Now, consider that their projection is
primarily about our EU trade only. They did _not_ factor
in the UK making new trade deals.
Therefore, and this is the point, the slope of the line
OUTSIDE the EU should be greater than their graph
suggests. That difference will, if followed, obviously
make us better off in the long term than we would have
been if we had stayed in the EU.
I have already established that although you are seemingly
sincere your ideas are ill-formed and your understanding of
statistics follows the great British tradition of having a go.
I'm not sure you "established" anything. I remember you
asserted it.
I don't remember us discussing statistics other than
reporting what others have said - which requires no
understanding.
I asked you if you has any formal training in statistics. I asked
several times before you answered. That is why I now said "your
understanding of statistics follows the great British tradition of
having a go".

In other words it's not formally based but, like so much of the
classically trained British civil service, picked up as they go
along.

The British cult of the plucky amateur is not impressive and the
subject of prrofessional derision by many Europeans. Just compare
David Davis to Michael Barnier. One is fully trained and knows what
he is doing and the other is just having a go.
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
I agree not all published data is well-represented and some
of it can be misleading but your other-worldiness when it
comes to this area is too strange for me.
I am sure you will enjoy yourself with your
misunderstandings and construct an alternative world which
is self-referring and complete. Leave me out of it. It is
not for me to spend time trying to second guess your
illusions or skewed outlook and correct them. Believe what
you will. Just move along.
Very patronising. And very vague. Am happy to cease to
discuss but let's not pretend with an airy-fairy phrase that
it's beneath your dignity to respond. Or I might begin to
think you have run out of argument. I notice you did not
respond to the above simple logical argument.
Your fascination and repeated account shows the simple view
you must have had before learning of these ways of the world.
Meanwhile, most other people knew this already. It's not
some deep insight except to you. I seem to recall you give a
commentary on the detailed steps to your enlightenment and ew
found insight on your web site.
That's more flummery, Pamela. You are attacking the simplicity
of the argument - and other things you don't like - but you
are avoiding engaging with the argument which says we can be
expected to grow more quickly outside the EU than we can
inside.
And while you decry an argument being simple I see it as an
asset. If the conclusion of an argument is obvious then the
explainer has done his or her job well.
I'm not at all "attacking the simplicity of the argument". It
is simple and it is true.
That sounds promising but, just to check, are you (finally)
agreeing that, given the reasoning presented, the UK /ought/ to
grow more quickly outside the EU, albeit from a lower initial
position? If so, that's good to hear.
We're obviously talking at crossed purposes. To be clear, I fully
believe the UK's economy will grow more slowly when it is outside the
EU.

I also believe any rational person (and I include you) would also
believe that although it appears you think there's some more than
likely way in which the UK economy will do better outside the EU.

As for "it is simple and it is true", I am referring to the way in
which models are constructed and your reminders that they're based on
judgement - as if that makes them less reliable. It is simple and it
is true that judgment is used somewhere in creating a forecast if
only about where to collect data, sample size, modelling method to
use, threshhold for cleaning data, and so on. I can't see why this
surprises you so much that you want to educate others about it
happening.
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
The point I am making is why something so
obvious causes you so much wonderment that you document your
observations and thinking of as well known as this in detail on
your web site.
I conclude it's because you were most probably naive about such
matters before finally learning of them and that doesn't
reflect well on your general understanding.
I don't know about that; I am not aware of a sense of wonder!
Where I might agree with you is that I know I do write in simple
language. I am not a natural communicator and if I try to write
in subtle terms I find when I read the prose back that it could
be misunderstood or not understood at all. So unless I am
discussing with known fellow techies who work in the same
industry as me I do probably write as if for a child to
understand.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
Ophelia
2018-01-12 10:09:53 UTC
Permalink
"Phi" wrote in message news:p39p90$ieb$***@dont-email.me...

BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.

An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.

Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.

Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.

"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html

==

Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us, which
I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see their car
companies fall??
Lancer
2018-01-12 11:14:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
tim...
2018-01-12 11:39:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of the
Brexit EU negotiating team.
but she is part of the team that will accept or decline it

only an idiot EU negotiator would negotiate something that they know the CoM
will veto

tim
Lancer
2018-01-12 12:08:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
but she is part of the team that will accept or decline it
Same goes for all the other European Council members, she's nothing special.

She may not even be Chancellor by the time Brexit happens with the
trouble she is having trying to form a coalition. Should do the same as
May did here and offer a few billion in bribes to prop up her minority
government.
Post by tim...
only an idiot EU negotiator would negotiate something that they know the
CoM will veto
Yeah. EU negotiators are seeking what is best for Europe, UK negotiators
are seeking the best for the UK.

As you said in another thread it isn't rocket science.
Ophelia
2018-01-12 13:19:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
but she is part of the team that will accept or decline it
Same goes for all the other European Council members, she's nothing special.

She may not even be Chancellor by the time Brexit happens with the
trouble she is having trying to form a coalition. Should do the same as
May did here and offer a few billion in bribes to prop up her minority
government.
Post by tim...
only an idiot EU negotiator would negotiate something that they know the
CoM will veto
Yeah. EU negotiators are seeking what is best for Europe, UK negotiators
are seeking the best for the UK.

As you said in another thread it isn't rocket science.

==

Ahhh I see. So nobody said we would have to be punished then for daring to
want to leave and to put off other countries who might think they can do the
same?
R. Mark Clayton
2018-01-12 16:38:46 UTC
Permalink
SNIP
Post by Lancer
Post by tim...
Post by Lancer
Post by Ophelia
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
but she is part of the team that will accept or decline it
Same goes for all the other European Council members, she's nothing special.
She may not even be Chancellor by the time Brexit happens with the
trouble she is having trying to form a coalition. Should do the same as
May did here and offer a few billion in bribes to prop up her minority
government.
So who do you think will be Chancellor then - the ever flexible Boris (US then UK citizen, MP, Mayor of Greater London, MP, minister...) or somebody already German?
Post by Lancer
Post by tim...
only an idiot EU negotiator would negotiate something that they know the
CoM will veto
Yeah. EU negotiators are seeking what is best for Europe, UK negotiators
are seeking the best for the UK.
As you said in another thread it isn't rocket science.
James Harris
2018-01-12 11:47:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player on the EU
side. Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the negotiations is
not the Commission but the Council which directs it. And in the Council,
Merkel is the one with most power - and most sense, if truth were told.
--
James Harris
Lancer
2018-01-12 12:18:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player on the EU
side. Barnier is just a servant.
As are Gove and Davis.
Post by James Harris
The real power in the negotiations is
not the Commission but the Council which directs it. And in the Council,
Merkel is the one with most power - and most sense, if truth were told.
Nope, it's done by country population.
Ophelia
2018-01-12 13:19:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player on the EU
side. Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the negotiations is
not the Commission but the Council which directs it. And in the Council,
Merkel is the one with most power - and most sense, if truth were told.

James Harris

==

She most certainly is. She decides what can be agreed or not!
pamela
2018-01-12 14:02:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses
at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm
Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the
single market and customs union could threaten as many as
14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink
their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the study
published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European
Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing
nearly a fifth of all components used in UK-based car
production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros
in sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains
and raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-
lo
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
se-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell
to us, which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she
want to see their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been
the President of the European Council for over a decade and is
not part of the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player
on the EU side.
Keep up James: "Is Angela Merkel Done For?"

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/angela-merkel-
coalition-germany.html
Post by James Harris
Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the negotiations is
not the Commission but the Council which directs it. And in the
Council, Merkel is the one with most power - and most sense, if
truth were told.
Sensible, yes except on immigration. However Merkel's grip on
power has been seriously loosened in the months since Germany's
election.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
James Harris
2018-01-12 17:38:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses
at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm
Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the
single market and customs union could threaten as many as
14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink
their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the study
published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European
Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing
nearly a fifth of all components used in UK-based car
production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros
in sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains
and raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-
lo
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
se-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell
to us, which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she
want to see their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been
the President of the European Council for over a decade and is
not part of the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player
on the EU side.
Keep up James: "Is Angela Merkel Done For?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/angela-merkel-
coalition-germany.html
Do you know you are incredible? I keep telling you that your assertions
are based on guesswork and here you go again: referring me to what is
yet another guess as if it has some meaning. I don't understand how
someone can base so much argument on guesswork. ISTM incredible that
someone should keep doing that.

Your comment is especially badly timed, for your argument, given that
Merkel today achieved a breakthrough in her talks with the SPD, making
her ongoing tenure more likely.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42660761
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the negotiations is
not the Commission but the Council which directs it. And in the
Council, Merkel is the one with most power - and most sense, if
truth were told.
Sensible, yes except on immigration. However Merkel's grip on
power has been seriously loosened in the months since Germany's
election.
Yes, she has been weakened but at least at this point she looks set to
continue to be the most powerful individual politician on the far side
of the Brexit negotiations.
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-12 21:46:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving
tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses
at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm
Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the
single market and customs union could threaten as many as
14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink
their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the
European Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing
nearly a fifth of all components used in UK-based car
production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros
in sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains
and raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-
could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they
sell to us, which I why I simply don't understand Merkel!
Does she want to see their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't
been the President of the European Council for over a decade
and is not part of the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player
on the EU side.
Keep up James: "Is Angela Merkel Done For?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/angela-merkel-
coalition-germany.html
Do you know you are incredible? I keep telling you that your
referring me to what is yet another guess as if it has some
meaning. I don't understand how someone can base so much
argument on guesswork. ISTM incredible that someone should keep
doing that.
Your comment is especially badly timed, for your argument, given
that Merkel today achieved a breakthrough in her talks with the
SPD, making her ongoing tenure more likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42660761
My comments are deliberately timely. I posted on the day Merkel was
fighting for her political survival because you maintained she is the
key European player however she was no key player in the months of
the haggling nor when you posted. She had become a lame duck.

My link was to yesterday's paper which explained much of that and the
timetable but perhaps you didn't read it.
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the negotiations
is not the Commission but the Council which directs it. And in
the Council, Merkel is the one with most power - and most
sense, if truth were told.
Sensible, yes except on immigration. However Merkel's grip on
power has been seriously loosened in the months since Germany's
election.
Yes, she has been weakened but at least at this point she looks
set to continue to be the most powerful individual politician on
the far side of the Brexit negotiations.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
James Harris
2018-01-13 00:03:07 UTC
Permalink
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player
on the EU side.
Keep up James: "Is Angela Merkel Done For?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/angela-merkel-
coalition-germany.html
Do you know you are incredible? I keep telling you that your
referring me to what is yet another guess as if it has some
meaning. I don't understand how someone can base so much
argument on guesswork. ISTM incredible that someone should keep
doing that.
Your comment is especially badly timed, for your argument, given
that Merkel today achieved a breakthrough in her talks with the
SPD, making her ongoing tenure more likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42660761
My comments are deliberately timely. I posted on the day Merkel was
fighting for her political survival because you maintained she is the
key European player however she was no key player in the months of
the haggling nor when you posted. She had become a lame duck.
My link was to yesterday's paper which explained much of that and the
timetable but perhaps you didn't read it.
No, I've been following this. And while I agree she was busy in
coalition talks I remembered hearing occasional drip feeds from either
her spokespeople or her government during that period.

For example: Germany will demand the U.K. pay for the privilege of its
financial firms having access to European Union markets after Brexit as
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government maintains a hard-line stance
against a bespoke trade deal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/germany-is-said-to-insist-u-k-pay-for-post-brexit-bank-access

And
https://www.smartbrief.com/s/2018/01/merkel-spokesman-germany-against-brexit-financial-services-deal

So she has remained the power which is willing to wield the veto, and
her minions have kept her influence going.
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-13 11:29:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key
player on the EU side.
Keep up James: "Is Angela Merkel Done For?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/angela-merkel-
coalition-germany.html
Do you know you are incredible? I keep telling you that your
referring me to what is yet another guess as if it has some
meaning. I don't understand how someone can base so much
argument on guesswork. ISTM incredible that someone should
keep doing that.
Your comment is especially badly timed, for your argument,
given that Merkel today achieved a breakthrough in her talks
with the SPD, making her ongoing tenure more likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42660761
My comments are deliberately timely. I posted on the day Merkel
was fighting for her political survival because you maintained
she is the key European player however she was no key player in
the months of the haggling nor when you posted. She had become
a lame duck.
My link was to yesterday's paper which explained much of that
and the timetable but perhaps you didn't read it.
No, I've been following this. And while I agree she was busy in
coalition talks I remembered hearing occasional drip feeds from
either her spokespeople or her government during that period.
For example: Germany will demand the U.K. pay for the privilege
of its financial firms having access to European Union markets
after Brexit as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government
maintains a hard-line stance against a bespoke trade deal.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/germany-
is-said-to-insist-u-k-pay-for-post-brexit-bank-access
And
https://www.smartbrief.com/s/2018/01/merkel-spokesman-
germany-against-brexit-financial-services-deal
So she has remained the power which is willing to wield the
veto, and her minions have kept her influence going.
It was touch and go. Merkel was badly winged in the election and
clung on as Chancellor hoping to cobble together a coalition but for
months it eluded her and at times looked impossible considering the
conflicting demands of the othe rparties. It amazes me that several
parties in Germany still oppose upper limits on immigration even
after the rifts it has caused across Europe.
James Harris
2018-01-14 17:41:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
...
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key
player on the EU side.
Keep up James: "Is Angela Merkel Done For?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/opinion/angela-merkel-
coalition-germany.html
Do you know you are incredible? I keep telling you that your
referring me to what is yet another guess as if it has some
meaning. I don't understand how someone can base so much
argument on guesswork. ISTM incredible that someone should
keep doing that.
Your comment is especially badly timed, for your argument,
given that Merkel today achieved a breakthrough in her talks
with the SPD, making her ongoing tenure more likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42660761
My comments are deliberately timely. I posted on the day Merkel
was fighting for her political survival because you maintained
she is the key European player however she was no key player in
the months of the haggling nor when you posted. She had become
a lame duck.
My link was to yesterday's paper which explained much of that
and the timetable but perhaps you didn't read it.
No, I've been following this. And while I agree she was busy in
coalition talks I remembered hearing occasional drip feeds from
either her spokespeople or her government during that period.
For example: Germany will demand the U.K. pay for the privilege
of its financial firms having access to European Union markets
after Brexit as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government
maintains a hard-line stance against a bespoke trade deal.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/germany-
is-said-to-insist-u-k-pay-for-post-brexit-bank-access
And
https://www.smartbrief.com/s/2018/01/merkel-spokesman-
germany-against-brexit-financial-services-deal
So she has remained the power which is willing to wield the
veto, and her minions have kept her influence going.
It was touch and go. Merkel was badly winged in the election and
clung on as Chancellor hoping to cobble together a coalition but for
months it eluded her and at times looked impossible considering the
conflicting demands of the othe rparties. It amazes me that several
parties in Germany still oppose upper limits on immigration even
after the rifts it has caused across Europe.
There's something we can agree on. Immigration is changing the makeup of
Europe and there is increasing unease about it. With good reason. For
example,

[Variants of] Mohammed most popular name for newborn boys in the
Netherlands for second year in a row

https://voiceofeurope.com/2018/01/mohammed-most-popular-name-for-newborn-boys-in-the-netherlands-for-second-year-in-a-row/
--
James Harris
pamela
2018-01-13 11:17:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses
at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm
Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the
single market and customs union could threaten as many as
14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink
their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the study
published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European
Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing
nearly a fifth of all components used in UK-based car
production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros
in sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains
and raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-
could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell
to us, which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she
want to see their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been
the President of the European Council for over a decade and is
not part of the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player
on the EU side. Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the
negotiations is not the Commission but the Council which directs
it. And in the Council, Merkel is the one with most power - and
most sense, if truth were told.
The Council may be responsible for high-level guidelines, but the
detail and technical aspects are decided by the Commission which
carries out most of the negotiations.

Needless to say the final agreement is voted by the EU Parliament
which the Council has no control over as we know from Farage's
speeches there.
James Harris
2018-01-14 17:55:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by pamela
Post by James Harris
Post by Lancer
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses
at German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm
Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the
single market and customs union could threaten as many as
14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink
their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the study
published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European
Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing
nearly a fifth of all components used in UK-based car
production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros
in sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains
and raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-
could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell
to us, which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she
want to see their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been
the President of the European Council for over a decade and is
not part of the Brexit EU negotiating team.
It may come as a surprise to you that Merkel is the key player
on the EU side. Barnier is just a servant. The real power in the
negotiations is not the Commission but the Council which directs
it. And in the Council, Merkel is the one with most power - and
most sense, if truth were told.
The Council may be responsible for high-level guidelines, but the
detail and technical aspects are decided by the Commission which
carries out most of the negotiations.
Certainly. My point remains that the Council are the ones with the
power. They set the Commission's boundaries and goals in the negotiations.
Post by pamela
Needless to say the final agreement is voted by the EU Parliament
which the Council has no control over as we know from Farage's
speeches there.
Yes.
--
James Harris
Ophelia
2018-01-12 13:17:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at German
automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single market and
customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs at automotive suppliers
in Germany and shrink their sales by 3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the
study published on Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in
2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with companies such
as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly a fifth of all components
used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with Britain and
German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in sales in 2016 from UK
car production, a study by global accounting firm Deloitte published on
Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as tariffs or
regulation would considerably harm supply chains and raise the costs for
suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell to us,
which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she want to see
their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been the
President of the European Council for over a decade and is not part of
the Brexit EU negotiating team.

===

It may come as a surprise to you that I am very well aware of that, but she
still has a hefty say in what the EU will agree.
pamela
2018-01-12 13:58:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phi
Post by Phi
BERLIN (Reuters) - A so-called "hard Brexit" involving tariffs and a lasting
devaluation of the pound could cause thousands of job losses at
German automotive suppliers, a study by accounting firm
Deloitte showed.
An arrangement where Britain gives up full access to the single
market and customs union could threaten as many as 14,000 jobs
at automotive suppliers in Germany and shrink their sales by
3.8 billion euros (£3.36 billion), the study published on
Thursday found. Britain will leave the European Union in 2019.
Germany is the largest exporter of car parts to the UK, with
companies such as Continental and Robert Bosch providing nearly
a fifth of all components used in UK-based car production.
Some 42,500 jobs in Germany depend on suppliers' ties with
Britain and German parts makers generated 16.9 billion euros in
sales in 2016 from UK car production, a study by global
accounting firm Deloitte published on Thursday showed.
"Trade barriers emerging in the course of Brexit such as
tariffs or regulation would considerably harm supply chains and
raise the costs for suppliers," Thomas Schiller, head of
automotive at Deloitte, said.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/german-car-suppliers-
could-lose-thousands-jobs-over-101327159--finance.html
Post by Phi
==
Quite so. It is common knowledge the number of cars they sell
to us, which I why I simply don't understand Merkel! Does she
want to see their car companies fall??
It may come as a surprise to you but Angela Merkel hasn't been
the President of the European Council for over a decade and is
not part of the Brexit EU negotiating team.
Also Merkel is currently negotiating her chancellorship as it is
under serious threat.
--
The wheels are coming off the Brexit clown car
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