Post by Pelican Post by James Harris Post by Ian Jackson Post by James Harris
You must admit that the Remain camp brought on themselves a lack of
credibility. The public were probably persuadable that there would be
some negatives, but they found not to be credible the extreme claims
that Project Fear came out with. Remain went too far. They lost their
And if the Remainers had foretold this ever-deepening chaos that we are
now in, would a single Brexiteer have believed it? Of course not! The
Brexit camp would simply have dismissed it as being just another example
of ridiculous Remainer OTT fear-mongering. [Come on - admit it - you
I am puzzled by your description. You are evidently sincere but what did
you think would happen around now? I am not surprised in the least - and
won't be if a deal on phase 1 is not reached until the new year.
In fact, I wouldn't be overly surprised if we don't get a trade deal
with the EU at all - and I certainly wouldn't be disappointed - though I
would very much regret that the government has not spent enough time
preparing for alternatives.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what problem you see! This is all
completely standard negotiation argy-bargy - especially when the EU is
involved. There's a lot of brinkmanship going on.
You don't appear to understand the situation.
No-one expected the referendum vote to go the way it did, so there was
no preparation for the outcome by the government, and certainly not by
those advocating Brexit.
Immediately the outcome was known, the EU made its position clear. The
UK would take whatever the EU was offering, or no deal. That is the
same position that the EU is taking now.
That leaves the prospect of a hard Brexit ie the UK leaves the EU
without any deal. Which is generally seen as a lose-lose result,
although quite a few Brexit people say that would be quite ok, like you.
Not quite. I've been saying for some time, now, that there are two basic
types of no deal.
1. No trade deal, i.e. no FTA.
2. No agreement of any kind.
Number 2 would be a disaster for the UK and the EU but mostly for the
UK. It is the kind of doomsday scenario that some warn about where
planes don't fly across the channel and goods are stopped at the borders
either completely or with miles and miles of tailback, foreign residents
have no legal status and contracts of services are voided. That would
fit all the dire descriptions that you have heard from those who fear No
Deal, and probably a lot more.
Number 1, by contrast, would be OK. It would leave businesses with some
adjustment to do and some would be impacted worse than others. But it
would be doable. And, crucially, it would leave the UK free of imposed
regulation. And that would be a prize which is very much worth having;
it would bring local and global opportunities that an FTA with the EU
might not. But it would take time to realise the benefits of that freedom.
It is precisely because number 2 is so dire that I don't think either
side would agree to it. The only way that it would be the outcome is if
the talks broke down into unimaginable levels of acrimony, and the UK is
doing a wonderful job in maintaining a friendly atmosphere so I cannot
see it happening.
Does that help you see why I am OK about No Deal?
Post by Pelican
The problems that might cause are of no concern to people like you. So
far as all other people are concerned, tough luck.