Post by Jethro_uk Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
Â That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously
Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest
being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain.
Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave
to Remain. I don'tÂ think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinionÂ polls?"]
Â A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave'
/ 'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield
at least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that
the Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrantÂ changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so
many phone-inÂ dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same
unrealistic mantras thatÂ they were two years ago, I can't help
wonder if a robust 60/40 couldÂ ever be reached.
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.