Discussion:
"Affront" or "effort" ?
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Pamela
2018-12-05 11:12:22 UTC
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The BBC reports:

Liam Fox said there was "natural Remain majority" in Parliament and
any attempt to overturn the 2016 referendum vote would be a
"democratic affront".

I think Liam Fox means it would be a democratic effort. :)
abelard
2018-12-05 11:17:58 UTC
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Post by Pamela
Liam Fox said there was "natural Remain majority" in Parliament and
any attempt to overturn the 2016 referendum vote would be a
"democratic affront".
I think Liam Fox means it would be a democratic effort. :)
then you are mistaken
--
www.abelard.org
Pamela
2018-12-05 11:44:47 UTC
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Post by abelard
Post by Pamela
Liam Fox said there was "natural Remain majority" in Parliament and
any attempt to overturn the 2016 referendum vote would be a
"democratic affront".
I think Liam Fox means it would be a democratic effort. :)
then you are mistaken
Your mistake is to say I am mistaken. :)

Parliament is taking back control from government usurpers to play the part
British democracy has allocated to it.
Ian Jackson
2018-12-05 13:18:51 UTC
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Post by abelard
Post by Pamela
Liam Fox said there was "natural Remain majority" in Parliament and
any attempt to overturn the 2016 referendum vote would be a
"democratic affront".
I think Liam Fox means it would be a democratic effort. :)
then you are mistaken
'Effort'? No - he almost certainly meant 'affront'.

Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
--
Ian
Jethro_uk
2018-12-05 13:38:40 UTC
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Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
Ian Jackson
2018-12-05 16:25:54 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks ago
gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously Leave
areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest being
Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain. Large swathes
of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave to Remain. I don't
think that any Leave areas had shown any reinforcement of their
position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout "But who believes opinion
polls?"]

A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at
least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to warrant
changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so many phone-in
dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic mantras that
they were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
--
Ian
JNugent
2018-12-05 16:50:28 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks ago
gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously Leave
areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest being
Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain. Large swathes
of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave to Remain. I don't
think that any Leave areas had shown any reinforcement of their
position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout "But who believes opinion
polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at
least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to warrant
changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so many phone-in
dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic mantras that
they were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all those
held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
Ian Jackson
2018-12-05 17:00:05 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks ago
gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously Leave
areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest being
Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain. Large swathes
of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave to Remain. I
don't think that any Leave areas had shown any reinforcement of their
position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout "But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at
least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so many
phone-in dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic
mantras that they were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust
60/40 could ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all those
held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
They may not be - but I don't think that any of the recent ones have
shown any indication except well and truly towards Remain. The only way
to make sure is a 100% poll - but, strangely, there are those who will
not countenance such an obvious course of action.
--
Ian
JNugent
2018-12-05 17:09:21 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JNugent
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
 That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks ago
gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously Leave
areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest being
Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain. Large
swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave to
Remain. I don't  think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion  polls?"]
 A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at
least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant  changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so many
phone-in  dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic
mantras that  they were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a
robust 60/40 could  ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
They may not be...
That's what I thought.
- but I don't think that any of the recent ones have
shown any indication except well and truly towards Remain. The only way
to make sure is a 100% poll - but, strangely, there are those who will
not countenance such an obvious course of action.
We don't need such a poll. We already have a result.

But congratulations on taking the EU project so seriously. As we all
know, the EU Manual provides that any referendum result which isn't in
line with the greater project has to be re-run, and re-run again, and
again, until the people get the answer right.
Pamela
2018-12-05 18:29:58 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JNugent
Post by JNugent
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will
probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
 That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously
Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest
being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain.
Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave
to Remain. I don't  think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion  polls?"]
 A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave'
/ 'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no
opinion.] http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield
at least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that
the Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant  changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so
many phone-in  dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same
unrealistic mantras that  they were two years ago, I can't help
wonder if a robust 60/40 could  ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
They may not be...
That's what I thought.
- but I don't think that any of the recent ones have
shown any indication except well and truly towards Remain. The only
way to make sure is a 100% poll - but, strangely, there are those who
will not countenance such an obvious course of action.
We don't need such a poll. We already have a result.
What you call a result is actually advise to Parliament on what public
opinion holds.
Post by JNugent
But congratulations on taking the EU project so seriously. As we all
know, the EU Manual provides that any referendum result which isn't in
line with the greater project has to be re-run, and re-run again, and
again, until the people get the answer right.
Congratulations to you for attempting to prevent people changing their
mind now that more facts are known about Brexit.

It makes the original referendum sound like a con job where the punter
is tricked into signing on the dotted line only to find he can't get out
of a swindle he later identifies.
JNugent
2018-12-05 21:39:37 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by JNugent
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will
probably take
quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would be at least
60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a 52/48
split ...
 That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously
Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest
being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain.
Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave
to Remain. I don't  think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion  polls?"]
 A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave'
/ 'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no
opinion.] http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield
at least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that
the Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant  changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so
many phone-in  dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same
unrealistic mantras that  they were two years ago, I can't help
wonder if a robust 60/40 could  ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
They may not be...
That's what I thought.
- but I don't think that any of the recent ones have
shown any indication except well and truly towards Remain. The only
way to make sure is a 100% poll - but, strangely, there are those who
will not countenance such an obvious course of action.
We don't need such a poll. We already have a result.
What you call a result is actually advise to Parliament on what public
opinion holds.
Post by JNugent
But congratulations on taking the EU project so seriously. As we all
know, the EU Manual provides that any referendum result which isn't in
line with the greater project has to be re-run, and re-run again, and
again, until the people get the answer right.
Congratulations to you for attempting to prevent people changing their
mind now that more facts are known about Brexit.
It makes the original referendum sound like a con job where the punter
is tricked into signing on the dotted line only to find he can't get out
of a swindle he later identifies.
I have never, ever, been asked after an election whether I was happy
with the outcome and whether I would like it re-run.

Does that happen round your way?
Pamela
2018-12-05 18:26:44 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably
take quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would
be at least 60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should
have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a
52/48 split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks ago
gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously Leave
areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest being
Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain. Large
swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave to
Remain. I don't think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at
least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so many
phone-in dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic
mantras that they were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust
60/40 could ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
In the poll of polls there was a lot of noise evident on account of a
wide spread of outcomes. See the chart in the link. The central
tendancy was that the two sides were, especially in the latter part of
the campaign, very close.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_referendum_pol
ling.svg
JNugent
2018-12-05 21:38:17 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a second
referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will probably
take quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that majority would
be at least 60/40 (which is, of course, what the first one should
have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than a
52/48 split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks ago
gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously Leave
areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest being
Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain. Large
swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave to
Remain. I don't think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529
So while it's almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at
least 52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so many
phone-in dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic
mantras that they were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust
60/40 could ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
In the poll of polls there was a lot of noise evident on account of a
wide spread of outcomes. See the chart in the link. The central
tendancy was that the two sides were, especially in the latter part of
the campaign, very close.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_referendum_pol
ling.svg
Was it different with the polls held before the referendum?

If so, how?
Pamela
2018-12-05 22:49:03 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JNugent
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will
probably take quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that
majority would be at least 60/40 (which is, of course, what the
first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than
a 52/48 split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously
Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest
being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain.
Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave
to Remain. I don't think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529 So while it's almost certain
that a re-run would comfortably yield at least 52/48 to remain, if
it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the Brexiteers would be
claiming that the swing was insufficient to warrant changing the
original decision to leave. As I hear so many phone-in dedicated
Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic mantras that they
were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
In the poll of polls there was a lot of noise evident on account of a
wide spread of outcomes. See the chart in the link. The central
tendancy was that the two sides were, especially in the latter part
of the campaign, very close.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_
referendum_polling.svg
Was it different with the polls held before the referendum?
If so, how?
Isn't it self-evident from the chart?
JNugent
2018-12-05 22:58:25 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it will
probably take quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure that
majority would be at least 60/40 (which is, of course, what the
first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater than
a 52/48 split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of seriously
Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the greatest
being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a Remain.
Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over from Leave
to Remain. I don't think that any Leave areas had shown any
reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to point shout
"But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave' /
'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no opinion.]
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529 So while it's almost certain
that a re-run would comfortably yield at least 52/48 to remain, if
it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the Brexiteers would be
claiming that the swing was insufficient to warrant changing the
original decision to leave. As I hear so many phone-in dedicated
Brexiteers still spouting the same unrealistic mantras that they
were two years ago, I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
In the poll of polls there was a lot of noise evident on account of a
wide spread of outcomes. See the chart in the link. The central
tendancy was that the two sides were, especially in the latter part
of the campaign, very close.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_
referendum_polling.svg
Was it different with the polls held before the referendum?
If so, how?
Isn't it self-evident from the chart?
Not in the slightest. The chart shows only the position up to (about)
the time of the referendum.
Pamela
2018-12-06 00:04:17 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by JNugent
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it
will probably take quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure
that majority would be at least 60/40 (which is, of course,
what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater
than a 52/48 split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of
seriously Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the
greatest being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a
Remain. Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over
from Leave to Remain. I don't think that any Leave areas had
shown any reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to
point shout "But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave'
/ 'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no
opinion.] http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529 So while it's
almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at least
52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so
many phone-in dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same
unrealistic mantras that they were two years ago, I can't help
wonder if a robust 60/40 could ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
In the poll of polls there was a lot of noise evident on account of
a wide spread of outcomes. See the chart in the link. The central
tendancy was that the two sides were, especially in the latter part
of the campaign, very close.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_
referendum_polling.svg
Was it different with the polls held before the referendum?
If so, how?
Isn't it self-evident from the chart?
Not in the slightest. The chart shows only the position up to (about)
the time of the referendum.
Aren't you asking about polls held before the referendum? That's what
the chart shows. It shows also the range of their different predictions
and you can see the main tendency.
JNugent
2018-12-06 01:50:13 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Pamela
Post by JNugent
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by Jethro_uk
Post by Ian Jackson
Nevertheless, while it's pretty certain that the result of a
second referendum would be a substantial vote to remain, it
will probably take quite some diplomatic 'effort' to ensure
that majority would be at least 60/40 (which is, of course,
what the first one should have been).
But any mandate to change the status quo needs to be greater
than a 52/48 split ...
That debate and public opinion poll result shown on TV few weeks
ago gave the state then at 54/46 to remain, with a lot of
seriously Leave areas showing large swings towards Remain - the
greatest being Sunderland, which at 49/51 to Leave was almost a
Remain. Large swathes of Leave regions had actually slipped over
from Leave to Remain. I don't think that any Leave areas had
shown any reinforcement of their position. [Cue for Brexiteers to
point shout "But who believes opinion polls?"]
A present YouGov survey gives 49/38 for 'wrong to vote to leave'
/ 'right to vote to leave'. [Presumably the others have no
opinion.] http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydhsh529 So while it's
almost certain that a re-run would comfortably yield at least
52/48 to remain, if it fell short of 60/40 I'm sure that the
Brexiteers would be claiming that the swing was insufficient to
warrant changing the original decision to leave. As I hear so
many phone-in dedicated Brexiteers still spouting the same
unrealistic mantras that they were two years ago, I can't help
wonder if a robust 60/40 could ever be reached.
Please explain why these opinion polls are more accurate than all
those held before the referendum which predicted a Remain win.
In the poll of polls there was a lot of noise evident on account of
a wide spread of outcomes. See the chart in the link. The central
tendancy was that the two sides were, especially in the latter part
of the campaign, very close.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_
referendum_polling.svg
Was it different with the polls held before the referendum?
If so, how?
Isn't it self-evident from the chart?
Not in the slightest. The chart shows only the position up to (about)
the time of the referendum.
Aren't you asking about polls held before the referendum?
Only tangentially.

I was asking how anyone could be more confident that current polls are
any more correct then the ones held in the run up to the referendum.
We know that "Remain" was tipped to win because of those earlier polls.
Post by Pamela
That's what
the chart shows. It shows also the range of their different predictions
and you can see the main tendency.
But no explanation of the difference in confidence level (if any).
MM
2018-12-05 17:49:29 UTC
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On Wed, 5 Dec 2018 16:25:54 +0000, Ian Jackson
.... I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
In which case the status quo must pertain.

MM
Ian Jackson
2018-12-05 19:50:06 UTC
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Post by MM
On Wed, 5 Dec 2018 16:25:54 +0000, Ian Jackson
.... I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
In which case the status quo must pertain.
But which one? I don't think the hard-line Brexiteers would accept it
being as per before the referendum. They would claim that we're on
course to leave.
--
Ian
Pamela
2018-12-05 20:44:01 UTC
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Post by Ian Jackson
Post by MM
On Wed, 5 Dec 2018 16:25:54 +0000, Ian Jackson
.... I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
In which case the status quo must pertain.
But which one? I don't think the hard-line Brexiteers would accept it
being as per before the referendum. They would claim that we're on
course to leave.
Brexit has turned out to be a dud.

Theresa May has offered a few sops to the hardline Leavers which satisfy
their headline demands. Meanwhile the rest of us want to be as close to
the EU as possible even if we're not a member.

We're on course for exactly this.

If hardline Brexiteers kick up too much of a fuss and destabilise the
governement, we might well get a second referendum or even general
election both of which are even less likely to give Brexiteers the
outcome they want.

Suck it up, Jacob and Boris.
MM
2018-12-06 12:00:48 UTC
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On Wed, 5 Dec 2018 19:50:06 +0000, Ian Jackson
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by MM
On Wed, 5 Dec 2018 16:25:54 +0000, Ian Jackson
.... I can't help wonder if a robust 60/40 could
ever be reached.
In which case the status quo must pertain.
But which one?
There is only one, and that is what we currently have, i.e. membership
of the European Union.
Post by Ian Jackson
I don't think the hard-line Brexiteers would accept it
being as per before the referendum. They would claim that we're on
course to leave.
But they would have to. It's not as if we were never a member and the
referendum asked whether we wanted to join or not. We are already a
member, so that is the status quo until we leave (if we ever do).

MM

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