Post by JNugent Post by Pamela Post by JNugent Post by Pamela Post by JNugent Post by pensive hamster
Post by JNugent
Were *you* swayed by the campaign?
I am quite certain that I was not.
I don't know anyone who says they changed their mind as a
result of the campaign.
It may be that the campaign(s) succeeded in swaying some
previously undecided voters.
Presumably the people running the various campaigns must have
thought they would have some effect, else they wouldn't have
expended so much effort and money.
Proving it is your difficulty.
As one company boss was once quoted as saying (perhaps
"Half of our advertising budget is a waste.
The trouble is - I don't know which half".
That was a comment about waste not effectiveness. Whichever half
of the budget worked it was still a half that did work.
As little as a 2% swing would reverse the oucome of the
Of course a 2% swing would reverse the outcome of the referendum
and wordplay can't change that.
The Leave vote was 8% bigger than the Remain vote. That is, for
every 1000 votes for Remain, there were 1080 for Leave.
I can see that abstention of 2% of the Leave vote would leave the
Leave majority around (but of course, not exactly) 6% (it would be
nearer to 5.8%). In round terms, it would be 22 votes per 1080 lost
to Leave and that would reduce the majority but certainly not
I can even see that a swap of 2% of the leave vote straight across
to Remain would have a bigger effect. 22 votes per 1000 Remain/ 1080
Leave would change that ratio to 1022 (Remain) to 1058 (Leave), and
I'm rounding in Remain's favour there - the effect would be slightly
less than that. But that's still a Leave win.
Remain = 17,410,742 Leave = 16,141,241
2 percent of 17,410,742 + 16,141,241 = 671,040
Remain with 2% swing against = 17,410,742 - 671,040 = 16,739,702
Leave with 2% swing for = 16,141,241 + 671,040 = 16,812,281
And that's excluding the 28% (12,948,018) of the electorate who
didn't vote and who may very well choose to do so next time - more
likely than not in favour of Remain.
We are clearly not defining 2% in the same way. 2% of the Leave vote
is not 671,000.