Post by Yellow Post by Ian Jackson Post by Joe
So stand up, MM, Ian, Pamela and the rest. You're here and
available. What kind of advertisement would it have taken to
have persuaded *you* to vote Leave?
It would have taken a pretty powerful argument to have persuaded
me to Leave. I don't think that's simply because I am
bone-headed, but instead it's that I have personally experienced
every stage in the EU from there barely being a Common Market to
what we have now.
Each stage has brought various advantages and disadvantages -
with the former generally substantially outweighing the latter.
[But note that I do appreciate that for some this has been maybe
a life-changing situation - particularly for some of those who
were actually doing the fishing.]
However, unlike some, I can usually distinguish between those
'nasty things' that are directly or in part because of our EU
membership (of which there are certainly a few), and the many
which have absolutely no connection whatsoever, and are often due
to governmental policies and their 'austerity' programme. So
while the EU might be far from perfect, it's certainly not always
the faceless unaccountable monster that many people have been
conned into believing it is.
As you, like me, have a brain in your head you too must have seen
the 800,000 figure and though "that is beyond credibility" and this
would have prompted you to did deeper.
This is what my digging has uncovered.
The expert claimed in court that 1 in 100 would changed their vote
after clicking on a Leave advert, but the figures presented in his
paper (which Hamster posted a link to) do not match the conclusion
presented in court and that has been reported in the papers.
The workings say that for a given advert 10% who see it will click
through, 10%of those will believe the claim and 10% of those will
have changed their vote.
So of the 80 million in fact only 80,000 would have changed their
vote, not 800,000 as the executive summary says.
Also, this expert has written a book (which is how come he been
given expert status) and in that he claims that the conversion rate
on political ads is 1%, not 10%, so that brings us down to 8,000
who changed their vote from Remain to Leave.
If we then look again at the 80 million figure, a number which
assumes all the click throughs are by individual UK voters, which
of course is impossible as there are only around 45 million voters
and far fewer of those have Facebook accounts, we can knock that
8,000 down to 4,500 voters and then down again to maybe a couple of
And finally, there is his claimed click though rate of 10% on
Facebook banner ads, which is hugely disputed and a figure of 1% or
2% is being banded about. That would know our couple of thousand
down to a couple of hundred.
highly speculative. [It rather reminds me of the Pools Panel that
step is to look at some of the recent opinion polls. While far from
of the way the government is going about implementing it. The