2018-11-28 17:34:03 UTC
Brexiters, do not read further! For you will immediately say that the
Whitehall analysis produced today is just more Project Fear.
For Remainers and for those Brexiters who are now in some doubt about
the wisdom of their vote on June 23, the analysis makes for dire
reading, especially for young people who will have to live with the
consequences of Brexit while the OAPs who voted for it are long since
From The Times (paywall):
"Britons will be worse off under all Brexit scenarios with the economy
eventually up to 3.1 per cent smaller even if Theresa May gets her
preferred outcome, according to Whitehall analysis released today.
"The government released an 83-page analysis on the possible changes
to GDP, tax revenue and trade in about 2035, 15 years from the end of
the implementation period.
"It compares the potential impact on the UK economy of different
Brexit scenarios compared to staying in the EU and leaving without a
deal, as well as with or without dramatic migration restrictions.
"In the event that Britain controls its borders after Brexit and there
are significant migration curbs, the economy would be between 1.9 and
3.1 per cent smaller, according to Treasury modelling of the prime
ministers white paper proposals for a 'frictionless' relationship.
"However the document acknowledges that Mrs May could struggle to
agree a 'frictionless' relationship after some in the EU rejected the
option. In a provocative move, it also models a scenario in which some
barriers go up at ports and restrictions are imposed on some imports
and exports, which resulting in a 3.9 per cent drop in the economy by
"Under a no-deal scenario, the British economy would be up to 10.7 per
cent smaller in the event of significant migration curbs; under a
Canada style trade deal it could be up to 8.1 per cent smaller.
"Brexit will mean the UK is worse off for years to come under any deal
agreed with Brussels, the chancellor has admitted.
"Philip Hammond said that even Mrs Mays Brexit deal will leave the UK
worse off than staying in the EU, although 'not by much'.