Post by pamela Post by James Harris Post by pamela Post by James Harris Post by pamela Post by James Harris Post by pamela Post by Fredxx Post by pamela Post by James Harris Post by Yellow
On Fri, 12 Jan 2018 13:36:11 +0000, James Harris
Post by James Harris
Cheap pound drives best factory growth in seven years
Factories are growing at the fastest pace in almost
seven years after a solid three months to November
that beat all forecasts and put Britain on track to
start 2018 on a firm footing.
To help them out a bit, it's not just the currency.
British exports are being helped by the twin benefits
of the low pound and global growth, both of which are
helping. On the currency, there's a case to be made
that the pound has long been overvalued due to
governments favouring financial markets, and that has
caused the UK's financial systems and headline wealth
figures look good at the expense of substance.
The Brexit vote, rather than causing a catastrophic
fall, took the fake top of the pound's value (and
maybe a bit more), and that is allowing more
substantial value-add industries to begin to
re-establish themselves. There is a long way to go as
production capacity takes time to re-form. But it's a
Now, if only there were some way to keep the pound
I read yesterday that the reason Project Fear has not
come to pass was because consumers and businesses just
do not realise how dreadful Brexit is going to be so
have kept on spending and expanding regardless.
I think it said it was quoting The Economist.
So I took that to mean they expected the economy to
fail because everyone would listen to the news that
that the economy was going to fail and that would bring
the prediction about.
That sounds like a story I read that economists were
claiming they got the predictions wrong because the
British public didn't react properly.
Sounds like a fake news story to me.
Was that reaction to the economists (as you suggest) or
reaction to factors which the economists were studying?
Perhaps its a reaction or expectation to Project Fear?
Shouldn't we now be in deep recession?
Deep recession? Not according to Brexiteers. By now we
should be out of the EU, enjoying an extra Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£350
million a week, have no new immigrants, enjoy cheap goods
in the shops, bask in unopposed sovereignty, and obey no EU
rules (allegedly there are 10,000 EU "laws" governing milk
according to "Brexit: The Movie", a self-styled
What went wrong?
First, it was only to be a shallow recession - 0.1% down for
four quarters under the median projection. Second, you have
NO idea about Brexit! The money won't come back until we
leave. Brexiteers still want immigrants to come here.
"Brexiteers still want immigrants to come here." That's the
best joke I 've heard all day.
Of course, we want immigrants to come. We just want to regain
CONTROL, that's all. We want the numbers of immigrants and
their skills to match what we as a country need, rather than
just having hundreds of millions of people able to move here
and compete for jobs and resources. Why is that so hard to
Do you like friends visiting you? If so, why not give them
each a key? Simply because you want to control who comes in to
your house or flat. It doesn't mean you don't want them round
or that you dislike them. Quite the opposite. But you want to
maintain control. That's normal, just as it's normal for a
nation to control its own borders.
I've seen it confirmed more than once: many who voted against
Brexit didn't understand it. I'd like to think that once they
see how it is working out the penny will drop and then the
nation will start to come together.
Nonsense. People do not want "controlled immigrants" here.
They want fewer immigrants here.
Brexit is not about NOW. It is about three, four, seven, twenty
and so on years in the future. If we had voted to Remain then
for all the years and decades ahead we faced a complete lack of
control over immigration from the EU27. But by voting to Leave
we have decided to take back control over all such matters and
the number of immigrants we need will VARY over time. Brexit
will allow the government to vary the numbers of people we let
in over time to suit the needs of both the economy and the
people who are already here.
As it happens, you claimed that "Brexiteers want immigrants" was
nonsense but now you state that they do want immigrants, just
fewer of them. Haven't you contradicted yourself?
I said Brexiteers do not want immigrants. You said they didn't
mind as long as the numbers were controlled. However the public
wants far fewer immigrants than the government is talking about
Even so, surely that confirms that Brexiteers want immigrants or, /some/
immigrants, if you prefer. I don't know of any Brexit supporter who
wants there to be /no/ immigrants. And anyone who felt that would be in
a very tiny minority.
As an example, I heard a caller to a radio phone-in the other day who,
from his voice, was as working-class Essex man as you could imagine. He
was railing about immigration. But when the host asked What about the
numbers being managed? he was Oh, yeah, mate, as long as it's kept under
proper control that's awright.
Post by pamela
Your "control" is one thing but it can still permit large numbers
which are unacceptable to the public.
Surely it will be up to the government to manage the figures from year
to year. They could do a good job or a bad one, of course.
And that's the real change: it's not that the numbers will necessarily
go up or down in any particular year but that the /decision/ about the
UK's immigration policy will be taken in London rather than in Brussels.
Why does that matter? Because the politicians in London are accountable
to the British public. As long as Brexit goes ahead then whatever
changes our politicians make to immigration over the next years and
decades they know they will be held to account for them by voters. The
ones making the decision will be our servants, not our masters.
Democracy really does matter as it keeps that relationship as it ought
Post by pamela
By the way, leaving the EU has been set for a very specific date.
The years after Britian exits the EU extend to infinity.
Post by James Harris Post by pamela Post by James Harris Post by pamela
James, did you miss where I wrote "by now"? Iwas saying that
the expectation amongst Leavers is that we would have already
left by now (18 months after the referndum) and that the
purported benefits such as Ã‚Â£350 million a week would
already be with us.
Yes, you did say "by now" but since the Article 50 process is
a nominal two years and we voted in June 2016 I don't see how
we could be out "by now".
Post by pamela Post by James Harris
Prices won't be affected much until we leave and set our own
import duties. And similar for your other comments.
Sentiment and the slump in the value of the pound means we do
not have to wait as long as Brexit-day to start feeling the
The pound's drop brought some negative effects in the short
term but is helping heal the economy - and that matters more.
What proof do you have that the fall in the pound, below that
which the IMF judged necessary, is helping heal the economy?
In 2014 the IMF said the high pound was preventing the economy
rebalancing away from an unhealthy reliance on domestic spending
The IMF also said very clearly that the pound fell more after the
referendum than needed simply to correct the overvaluation.
I'd be surprised as it dropped 10% to 15%, didn't it, and the IMF said
before the referendum that the pound was 5% to 15% too high, IIRC.
Do you have a link?
Post by pamela
Furthermore any overvaluation was not being corrected by the
markets and would probably have remained so if it wasn't for the
Agreed. So the referendum helped correct the overvaluation...?
Post by pamela Post by James Harris
Tourists spent £2bn in Britain in the month, soaring by 20pc on
the year. That is the largest amount ever spent in the UK by
foreign visitors in the month of April.
We overtook France in manufacturing.
U.K. factories recorded their strongest growth in more than four
years in November, with firms recording strong domestic and
Venture capital investment into the UK's tech sector reached an
all-time high of Â£2.99bn, almost double the total invested in
2016, according to figures compiled by data firm Pitchbook for
lobby group London & Partners. The UK's tech firms, dominated by
London, gained more venture capital investment in total than
Germany, France, Spain and Ireland combined.
And much more.
The UK has fallen to the bottom of the growth league amongst
developed nations and is currently lagging behind strong growth in
the world economy. The pounds, as discussed, has fallen in value
on account of Brexit. Wages are rising slower than inflation and
general price rise levels are troubling
To take the points you mentioned.
* Fall in growth ranking. Agreed but not too important. UK growth for
2016 and 2017 was always going to be suppressed by uncertainty if we
voted to Leave the EU but even the pessimists predict growth to return
as certainty returns. And as I've said before, that growth should be
significantly stronger than it would have been if we had remained in the
* The fall in the pound is good and bad. I would suggest that while it
has some negative effects it is reacting to changing conditions, as it
should, and its recent period at a lower value is helping rejuvenate
parts of the economy that even some beers could not reach.
* Real-terms wages fell from 2008 to 2014. Then they rose sharply until
recently - second half of last year, possibly. But we'll surely see them
rise again if immigration is restricted thanks to Brexit. In fact, given
reports I've seen of comments by recruiters you might see them rise
again in real terms this year as the economy is booming and inflation is
expected to fall back.
Besides, a lot of the lurid media about "no wage rises for a decade"
were very misleading. As above, there /was/ a period of wage rises. The
truth is that wages had not returned to their pre-financial crisis
levels but the media put it across is if a lost decade was to come. It
wasn't. Even at the time of such reports, wages were rising and were
expected to continue to rise. Details in this link:
Post by pamela
Although the outcome is better than the gloomiest forecasts made
just before the referendum of a Brexit-induced recession, it's not
Agreed, though as I've said before, we are going through a massive
change. Just about all the forecasts I've seen said this period would be
worse than normal, with many forecasting recession which has turned out
to be far too pessimistic, but that they all predicted a return to good
growth as we come out the other side.