Discussion:
Loving this talk about No Deal
(too old to reply)
James Harris
2017-10-11 12:12:31 UTC
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Raw Message
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.

But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.

Hooray!
--
James Harris
abelard
2017-10-11 12:16:18 UTC
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Raw Message
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 13:12:31 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
good to see theresa upping her game while watching
gerry and his whiners squirming....
--
www.abelard.org
b***@once.me
2017-10-12 10:24:48 UTC
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Raw Message
Post by abelard
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 13:12:31 +0100, James Harris
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
good to see theresa upping her game while watching
gerry and his whiners squirming....
Gerry and his delaymakers.
Phi
2017-10-11 13:21:36 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because I
want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism in
what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it is
being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been treated
to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem with
borders with Sweden and Finland.
The Todal
2017-10-11 15:34:26 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
abelard
2017-10-11 15:36:36 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
yeah, and there's a meteor approaching fast....

we're all do-o-o--o-o-o--o--o-m-m-m-e-d-d-d
--
www.abelard.org
Incubus
2017-10-11 16:05:19 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for
pragmatism in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal
but at least it is being discussed more realistically than the
hysterics we have been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a
problem with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
How is it the case that we will be virtually bankrupt?
tim...
2017-10-11 16:26:43 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
Judith
2017-10-13 01:42:21 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and regulatory
barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature Brexit none of the
necessary infrastructure would be in place, causing chaos at ports. Complex
cross-border supply chains would be interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK
would not have their approval recognised in other member states, and clinical
trials would be disrupted.

It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are no rules
to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their schedules a year in
advance. It is conceivable that, following a chaotic Brexit, planes to and from
the UK would cease to fly, if only because the lawyers would caution them
against doing so.

The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland — which a
chaotic Brexit would make inevitable — hardly need spelling out. Even the talk
of no deal has destabilised the province, in the context of simmering tensions
over the breakdown of power sharing.

The economic implications would also be severe. The highly integrated agri-food
business would be severely disrupted. Indeed agriculture throughout the country
would be affected. We expect major retailers to have contingency plans, so we
would not anticipate food shortages. However, a chaotic Brexit would make the
task of separating our WTO entitlements and obligations from those of the EU
much harder, particularly if talks broke down acrimoniously.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/no-deal-will-bring-a-chaotic-brexit-to-the-fore/

HTH
Yellow
2017-10-13 02:07:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Judith
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and regulatory
barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature Brexit none of the
necessary infrastructure would be in place, causing chaos at ports. Complex
cross-border supply chains would be interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK
would not have their approval recognised in other member states, and clinical
trials would be disrupted.
It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are no rules
to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their schedules a year in
advance. It is conceivable that, following a chaotic Brexit, planes to and from
the UK would cease to fly, if only because the lawyers would caution them
against doing so.
The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland ? which a
chaotic Brexit would make inevitable ? hardly need spelling out. Even the talk
of no deal has destabilised the province, in the context of simmering tensions
over the breakdown of power sharing.
NI haven't got a government at the moment to destabilise. Been since
January hasn't it?
Post by Judith
The economic implications would also be severe. The highly integrated agri-food
business would be severely disrupted. Indeed agriculture throughout the country
would be affected. We expect major retailers to have contingency plans, so we
would not anticipate food shortages. However, a chaotic Brexit would make the
task of separating our WTO entitlements and obligations from those of the EU
much harder, particularly if talks broke down acrimoniously.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/no-deal-will-bring-a-chaotic-brexit-to-the-fore/
HTH
And there would be equal chaos in the EU. I don't wish anyone any harm,
but it would be quite interesting simply to let it all play out, to see
who blinks first.
James Harris
2017-10-13 05:49:05 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Judith
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and regulatory
barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature Brexit none of the
necessary infrastructure would be in place, causing chaos at ports. Complex
cross-border supply chains would be interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK
would not have their approval recognised in other member states, and clinical
trials would be disrupted.
I assuming by "cliff edge" you mean a sudden change. Customs checks and
tariffs would apply under WTO even without a cliff edge. But,
surprisingly, the infrastructure doesn't need to be in place from day 1.
Because UK customs examine selected shipments only they are able to
start small and ramp up as time goes on. That's not desirable, of
course, but it can be done (according to HMRC officials' evidence to a
select committee).

What EU customs people do on the other side, however, is outside our
control. If they got nasty....
Post by Judith
It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are no rules
to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their schedules a year in
advance. It is conceivable that, following a chaotic Brexit, planes to and from
the UK would cease to fly, if only because the lawyers would caution them
against doing so.
Only feasible if the EU side is deliberately obstructive. They could be.
Post by Judith
The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland — which a
chaotic Brexit would make inevitable — hardly need spelling out. Even the talk
of no deal has destabilised the province, in the context of simmering tensions
over the breakdown of power sharing.
I believe that's untrue. Ireland's internal border can remain as it is.
So far, it is only the EU side which is complaining about leaving it open.
Post by Judith
The economic implications would also be severe. The highly integrated agri-food
business would be severely disrupted. Indeed agriculture throughout the country
would be affected. We expect major retailers to have contingency plans, so we
would not anticipate food shortages. However, a chaotic Brexit would make the
task of separating our WTO entitlements and obligations from those of the EU
much harder, particularly if talks broke down acrimoniously.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/no-deal-will-bring-a-chaotic-brexit-to-the-fore/
If talks broke down acrimoniously then I agree that bad things could
happen. With a civil-natured breakup the WTO option is not too bad.
--
James Harris
tim...
2017-10-13 08:58:21 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
If talks broke down acrimoniously then I agree that bad things could
happen. With a civil-natured breakup the WTO option is not too bad.
and good luck with them getting our help when the Ruskies invade Lithuania,
if they do go out of they way to be deliberately obstructive

tim
Dan S. MacAbre
2017-10-13 09:07:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by James Harris
If talks broke down acrimoniously then I agree that bad things could
happen. With a civil-natured breakup the WTO option is not too bad.
and good luck with them getting our help when the Ruskies invade
Lithuania, if they do go out of they way to be deliberately obstructive
tim
I think they all love that Russian gas too much to be bothered about
that :-)
Norman Wells
2017-10-13 09:08:09 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by James Harris
If talks broke down acrimoniously then I agree that bad things could
happen. With a civil-natured breakup the WTO option is not too bad.
and good luck with them getting our help when the Ruskies invade
Lithuania, if they do go out of they way to be deliberately obstructive
I think you'll find that's a NATO thing, unconnected with the EU.

And as far as I know we're not pulling out of NATO.
tim...
2017-10-13 12:43:56 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by James Harris
If talks broke down acrimoniously then I agree that bad things could
happen. With a civil-natured breakup the WTO option is not too bad.
and good luck with them getting our help when the Ruskies invade
Lithuania, if they do go out of they way to be deliberately obstructive
I think you'll find that's a NATO thing, unconnected with the EU.
maybe it is

but that hasn't stopped other member countries in the past not committing
their troops (in their relative numbers) to every NATO operation, for some
spurious reason.

it is, in fact commonplace

tim
James Hammerton
2017-10-13 18:30:55 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
Post by Judith
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and regulatory
barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature Brexit none of the
necessary infrastructure would be in place, causing chaos at ports. Complex
cross-border supply chains would be interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK
would not have their approval recognised in other member states, and clinical
trials would be disrupted.
I assuming by "cliff edge" you mean a sudden change. Customs checks and
tariffs would apply under WTO even without a cliff edge. But,
surprisingly, the infrastructure doesn't need to be in place from day 1.
Because UK customs examine selected shipments only they are able to
start small and ramp up as time goes on. That's not desirable, of
course, but it can be done (according to HMRC officials' evidence to a
select committee).
What EU customs people do on the other side, however, is outside our
control. If they got nasty....
Depends to what extent sticking to the letter of EU law might be
considered nasty.

We currently export freely to EU member states because we are an EU
member state. At some time after we leave the EU (probably not long
after our last day as EU members ends), we'll no longer be listed as an
EU member state on the relevant databases.

As a third country we need to apply for permission to export to the EU
before our businesses can apply (and do so in each of dozens of
categories of products). Then our businesses need to apply for
permission to do so as well (plus they need to perform appropriate
paperwork for each consignment once the permission is granted). Without
these permissions our goods can't enter the EU. That is the law.

I've seen it argued this is all computerised so that e.g. when our goods
enter other EU countries a simple check of the digital manifest is made
and the goods can then continue, but if the digital manifest says the
goods are from a third country that hasn't got pernission (the state of
the UK after Brexit if there's literally no deal/no preparation) then we
have a 'computer says no' situation and the goods will be blocked.

This is the sort of situation that an agreement (e.g. to transfer us and
our existing EU exporting businesses onto the relevant third country
lists) with the EU would ensure we avoided , and which we risk under
the literally 'no deal' scenario.
Post by James Harris
Post by Judith
It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are no rules
to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their schedules a year in
advance. It is conceivable that, following a chaotic Brexit, planes to and from
the UK would cease to fly, if only because the lawyers would caution them
against doing so.
Only feasible if the EU side is deliberately obstructive. They could be.
Post by Judith
The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland — which a
chaotic Brexit would make inevitable — hardly need spelling out. Even the talk
of no deal has destabilised the province, in the context of simmering tensions
over the breakdown of power sharing.
I believe that's untrue. Ireland's internal border can remain as it is.
So far, it is only the EU side which is complaining about leaving it open.
WTO rules require the EU to treat all third countries the same regarding
trade matters (except where treaties may allow for removal of barriers).
So e.g. if the US has to jump through certain hoops to export to the EU,
so will the UK, including NI.

If the EU allow goods to flow freely from NI across the EU's new land
border with the UK in Ireland, in the absence of an agreement, it may
result in complaints from other third countries who have to jump through
the hoops...
Post by James Harris
Post by Judith
The economic implications would also be severe. The highly integrated agri-food
business would be severely disrupted. Indeed agriculture throughout the country
would be affected. We expect major retailers to have contingency plans, so we
would not anticipate food shortages. However, a chaotic Brexit would make the
task of separating our WTO entitlements and obligations from those of the EU
much harder, particularly if talks broke down acrimoniously.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/no-deal-will-bring-a-chaotic-brexit-to-the-fore/
If talks broke down acrimoniously then I agree that bad things could
happen. With a civil-natured breakup the WTO option is not too bad.
Regards,

James
--
James Hammerton
http://jhammerton.wordpress.com
http://www.magnacartaplus.com/
James Harris
2017-10-13 20:32:02 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Post by Judith
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and regulatory
barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature Brexit none of the
necessary infrastructure would be in place, causing chaos at ports. Complex
cross-border supply chains would be interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK
would not have their approval recognised in other member states, and clinical
trials would be disrupted.
I assuming by "cliff edge" you mean a sudden change. Customs checks and
tariffs would apply under WTO even without a cliff edge. But,
surprisingly, the infrastructure doesn't need to be in place from day 1.
Because UK customs examine selected shipments only they are able to
start small and ramp up as time goes on. That's not desirable, of
course, but it can be done (according to HMRC officials' evidence to a
select committee).
What EU customs people do on the other side, however, is outside our
control. If they got nasty....
Depends to what extent sticking to the letter of EU law might be
considered nasty.
I get the impression that the EU reverts to EU law only when it wants
to. It could choose to be nasty if talks break down acrimoniously.
Post by James Hammerton
We currently export freely to EU member states because we are an EU
member state. At some time after we leave the EU (probably not long
after our last day as EU members ends), we'll no longer be listed as an
EU member state on the relevant databases.
As a third country we need to apply for permission to export to the EU
before our businesses can apply (and do so in each of dozens of
categories of products). Then our businesses need to apply for
permission to do so as well (plus they need to perform appropriate
paperwork for each consignment once the permission is granted). Without
these permissions our goods can't enter the EU. That is the law.
I've seen it argued this is all computerised so that e.g. when our goods
enter other EU countries a simple check of the digital manifest is made
and the goods can then continue, but if the digital manifest says the
goods are from a third country that hasn't got pernission (the state of
the UK after Brexit if there's literally no deal/no preparation) then we
have a 'computer says no' situation and the goods will be blocked.
This is the sort of situation that an agreement (e.g. to transfer us and
our existing EU exporting businesses onto the relevant third country
lists) with the EU would ensure we avoided , and which we risk under
the literally 'no deal' scenario.
To be clear, IMO the "literally no deal" scenario would be disastrous.
There really would be no cross-border trade, no cross-border flights and
so on. But I am working on the assumption that "no trade deal" is much
more positive.
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
Post by Judith
It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are no rules
to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their schedules a year in
advance. It is conceivable that, following a chaotic Brexit, planes to and from
the UK would cease to fly, if only because the lawyers would caution them
against doing so.
Only feasible if the EU side is deliberately obstructive. They could be.
Post by Judith
The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland — which a
chaotic Brexit would make inevitable — hardly need spelling out. Even the talk
of no deal has destabilised the province, in the context of simmering tensions
over the breakdown of power sharing.
I believe that's untrue. Ireland's internal border can remain as it is.
So far, it is only the EU side which is complaining about leaving it open.
WTO rules require the EU to treat all third countries the same regarding
trade matters (except where treaties may allow for removal of barriers).
So e.g. if the US has to jump through certain hoops to export to the EU,
so will the UK, including NI.
If the EU allow goods to flow freely from NI across the EU's new land
border with the UK in Ireland, in the absence of an agreement, it may
result in complaints from other third countries who have to jump through
the hoops...
Good point.
--
James Harris
Ned Latham
2017-10-14 03:06:47 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 17:26:43 +0100, "tim..."
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being
discussed without the political equivalent of people running
around in a panic screaming about the end being nigh. There is
still room for pragmatism in what the public are being told to
expect from No Deal but at least it is being discussed more
realistically than the hysterics we have been treated to
hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a
problem with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and
regulatory barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature
Brexit none of the necessary infrastructure would be in place,
causing chaos at ports. Complex cross-border supply chains would be
interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK would not have their approval
recognised in other member states, and clinical trials would be
disrupted.
I assuming by "cliff edge" you mean a sudden change. Customs checks
and tariffs would apply under WTO even without a cliff edge. But,
surprisingly, the infrastructure doesn't need to be in place from day
1. Because UK customs examine selected shipments only they are able to
start small and ramp up as time goes on. That's not desirable, of
course, but it can be done (according to HMRC officials' evidence to a
select committee).
What EU customs people do on the other side, however, is outside our
control. If they got nasty....
Depends to what extent sticking to the letter of EU law might be
considered nasty.
I get the impression that the EU reverts to EU law only when it wants
to. It could choose to be nasty if talks break down acrimoniously.
Pay back is a bitch!
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
We currently export freely to EU member states because we are an EU
member state. At some time after we leave the EU (probably not long
after our last day as EU members ends), we'll no longer be listed as an
EU member state on the relevant databases.
As a third country we need to apply for permission to export to the EU
before our businesses can apply (and do so in each of dozens of
categories of products). Then our businesses need to apply for
permission to do so as well (plus they need to perform appropriate
paperwork for each consignment once the permission is granted). Without
these permissions our goods can't enter the EU. That is the law.
I've seen it argued this is all computerised so that e.g. when our
goods enter other EU countries a simple check of the digital manifest
is made and the goods can then continue, but if the digital manifest
says the goods are from a third country that hasn't got pernission (the
state of the UK after Brexit if there's literally no deal/no
preparation) then we have a 'computer says no' situation and the goods
will be blocked.
This is the sort of situation that an agreement (e.g. to transfer us
and our existing EU exporting businesses onto the relevant third
country lists) with the EU would ensure we avoided , and which we risk
under the literally 'no deal' scenario.
To be clear, IMO the "literally no deal" scenario would be disastrous.
There really would be no cross-border trade, no cross-border flights and
so on. But I am working on the assumption that "no trade deal" is much
more positive.
Indeed!
Definitely this will be the case for a number of EU member states. On the
other hand the UK will be sorry. Bring it on!
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are
no rules to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their
schedules a year in advance. It is conceivable that, following a
chaotic Brexit, planes to and from the UK would cease to fly, if only
because the lawyers would caution them against doing so.
Only feasible if the EU side is deliberately obstructive. They could be.
I certainly hope so!
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland —
which a chaotic Brexit would make inevitable — hardly need spelling
out. Even the talk of no deal has destabilised the province, in the
context of simmering tensions over the breakdown of power sharing.
I believe that's untrue. Ireland's internal border can remain as it
is. So far, it is only the EU side which is complaining about leaving
it open.
WTO rules require the EU to treat all third countries the same
regarding trade matters (except where treaties may allow for removal of
barriers).
So e.g. if the US has to jump through certain hoops to export to the EU,
so will the UK, including NI.
So what is the downside for the EU in that?
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
If the EU allow goods to flow freely from NI across the EU's new land
border with the UK in Ireland, in the absence of an agreement, it may
result in complaints from other third countries who have to jump
through the hoops...
Good point.
Ned Latham
2017-10-14 03:34:51 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Not Ned Latham, nut tne ugly sow's lapdog, aka the Foreskin Peeler
(you know, the cowardly retard that sometimes calls itself "Ördög")
spewed forth its usual obsessive ranting impersonation...
Post by Ned Latham
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
Post by James Harris
What EU customs people do on the other side, however, is outside our
control. If they got nasty....
Depends to what extent sticking to the letter of EU law might be
considered nasty.
I get the impression that the EU reverts to EU law only when it wants
to. It could choose to be nasty if talks break down acrimoniously.
Pay back is a bitch!
That's "payback", moron.

----snip----
Post by Ned Latham
Post by James Harris
To be clear, IMO the "literally no deal" scenario would be disastrous.
Maybe not. Unless the EU cabal get their shit together, the Union will
disintegrate. The UK, will in that event be seen by many countries, if
it wishes to take up the role, as a leader in the reorganisation of
Europe on an equitable basis.
Post by Ned Latham
Post by James Harris
There really would be no cross-border trade, no cross-border flights and
so on. But I am working on the assumption that "no trade deal" is much
more positive.
Indeed!
Definitely this will be the case for a number of EU member states.
On the other hand the UK will be sorry. Bring it on!
You forget the strength of the British economy and the quality of
British design and engineering. but then you're a retarded East
European immigrant who knows nothing of the English-speaking
world.

----snip----
Post by Ned Latham
Post by James Harris
Post by James Hammerton
WTO rules require the EU to treat all third countries the same
regarding trade matters (except where treaties may allow for removal of
barriers).
So e.g. if the US has to jump through certain hoops to export to the EU,
so will the UK, including NI.
So what is the downside for the EU in that?
It limits their "nastiness" options, moron.

----snip----

tim...
2017-10-13 08:55:43 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Judith
Post by tim...
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
what nonsense
While a cliff-edge Brexit would imply customs checks, tariffs and regulatory
barriers between the UK and the EU, with a premature Brexit none of the
necessary infrastructure would be in place, causing chaos at ports. Complex
cross-border supply chains would be interrupted. Drugs developed in the UK
would not have their approval recognised in other member states, and clinical
trials would be disrupted.
It gets worse. Air transport is not covered by the WTO, so there are no rules
to fall back on. And airlines need to arrange their schedules a year in
advance. It is conceivable that, following a chaotic Brexit, planes to and from
the UK would cease to fly, if only because the lawyers would caution them
against doing so.
The political implications of a hard border in Northern Ireland - which a
chaotic Brexit would make inevitable - hardly need spelling out. Even the
talk
of no deal has destabilised the province, in the context of simmering tensions
over the breakdown of power sharing.
The economic implications would also be severe. The highly integrated agri-food
business would be severely disrupted. Indeed agriculture throughout the country
would be affected. We expect major retailers to have contingency plans, so we
would not anticipate food shortages. However, a chaotic Brexit would make the
task of separating our WTO entitlements and obligations from those of the EU
much harder, particularly if talks broke down acrimoniously.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/no-deal-will-bring-a-chaotic-brexit-to-the-fore/
but all of that is a very short term problem

bankrupting the country requires a long term cause

tim
Post by Judith
HTH
Christie
2017-10-11 18:06:05 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

Quote:
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.

But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
James Harris
2017-10-11 19:12:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Christie
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.

Realisation is dawning. :-)
--
James Harris
The Todal
2017-10-11 19:20:59 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
Post by Christie
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
What has any of this got to do with *no deal* meaning virtual bankruptcy
for our nation?

Oh, right, I see.

Because you no longer trust George Osborne, you now slavishly trust
Nigel Farage and the extremist Brexiters who lie to the nation and claim
that we don't even need an exit deal because everyone will be queueing
up to do business with us. It's a form of narcissism, or megalomania.

Well, no matter what you believe, the grownups will ensure that we
either have a workable Brexit deal or we remain in the EU.
Tim Woodall
2017-10-11 22:25:09 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Well, no matter what you believe, the grownups will ensure that we
either have a workable Brexit deal or we remain in the EU.
Conspiracy theory number 132.

TPTB are leading us into a catastrophic brexit so that then when we beg for
reentry we are forced to take the Euro and Schengen travel area.

(Thats the UK plot. The EU one to the same end is number 133 :-) )
abelard
2017-10-11 22:32:00 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Well, no matter what you believe, the grownups will ensure that we
either have a workable Brexit deal or we remain in the EU.
rotfl...
--
www.abelard.org
tim...
2017-10-12 10:49:18 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Post by James Harris
Post by Christie
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels elite.
Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
What has any of this got to do with *no deal* meaning virtual bankruptcy
for our nation?
Oh, right, I see.
Because you no longer trust George Osborne, you now slavishly trust Nigel
Farage and the extremist Brexiters who lie to the nation and claim that we
don't even need an exit deal because everyone will be queueing up to do
business with us.
No, it's because "no deal" will not lose us the quantity of trade that
bankrupts us

the idea that it will is a nonsense

tim
Christie
2017-10-11 22:54:41 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
Post by Christie
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Yes, and I was a little disappointed that Theresa could not answer the
same hypothetical question in as straight forward a manner as both
Jeremy and Liz. But when Theresa was asked the question again in the
House of Commons during PMQ's she did clarify thus:

Quote:
"I am the Prime Minister ensuring that I am going to deliver Brexit
for the British people. I could sit here and I could say, 'oh I would
still vote Remain, or I would vote Leave', just to answer your
question. I am being open and honest with you, what I did last time
around was I looked at everything, and came to a judgement and I would
do exactly the same another time around."

But we are not having another referendum. That's absolutely crucial.
We are not having another referendum. We are going to deliver on the
vote of the British people and we are going to deliver Brexit. March
29, 2019, we come out of the European Union."

That seems fair enough to me.
Post by James Harris
Realisation is dawning. :-)
:) Good.
Ian Jackson
2017-10-12 07:01:14 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
Post by Christie
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
-- James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
--
Ian
kat
2017-10-12 07:55:37 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--  James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
 Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
 But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
A close friend of mine said the same thing a few weeks ago. Project
Fear had got to her, it didn't happen, so, then, other considerations
come into it.
--
kat
Post by Ian Jackson
^..^<
James Harris
2017-10-12 08:23:06 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
...
Post by kat
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
Ian, do you realise that the predictions of doom were only for the short
term? We are in that period now!

Things are suppressed a bit due to effects such as inflation and
uncertainty. But there's no doom. The promised firecracker turned out to
be a damp squib.

What's more, inflation is expected to drop back and the uncertainty will
go as our new relationship with the EU becomes clearer. As the
uncertainty goes businesses will increase investment again.

There will be economic ups and downs, for sure. That's what normally
happens. But as time goes on it will become increasingly meaningless for
people to try to attribute such effects to the Brexit vote. I'd be more
concerned about the levels of debt which are being built up.
Post by kat
A close friend of mine said the same thing a few weeks ago. Project
Fear had got to her, it didn't happen, so, then, other considerations
come into it.
How does she feel now?
--
James Harris
Ian Jackson
2017-10-12 10:46:43 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
...
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
Ian, do you realise that the predictions of doom were only for the
short term? We are in that period now!
By "only for the short term" do you mean that the "doom" wouldn't last
for long? If so, why was anyone particularly worried?
Post by James Harris
Things are suppressed a bit due to effects such as inflation and
uncertainty. But there's no doom.
Maybe no doom yet - but there's certainly a lot of 'gloom'.
Post by James Harris
The promised firecracker turned out to be a damp squib.
Was the immediate drop in the pound a vote of confidence in the UK
economy? OK, since the initial shock there's been a reasonable recovery,
but I suspect this is largely because nothing disastrous has happened
yet - and quite a lot of us are still living in hope that something that
isn't too bad will eventually emerge - although hopes are certainly
beginning to fade.
Post by James Harris
What's more, inflation is expected to drop back and the uncertainty
will go as our new relationship with the EU becomes clearer. As the
uncertainty goes businesses will increase investment again.
While you could be right, I can't share your absolute confidence.
Post by James Harris
There will be economic ups and downs, for sure. That's what normally
happens. But as time goes on it will become increasingly meaningless
for people to try to attribute such effects to the Brexit vote. I'd be
more concerned about the levels of debt which are being built up.
As I've said before, it will be claimed that if things don't turn out
too badly, "it will all be because of Brexit". If things do turn out
badly, "it won't be because of Brexit".
Post by James Harris
A close friend of mine said the same thing a few weeks ago. Project
Fear had got to her, it didn't happen, so, then, other considerations
come into it.
How does she feel now?
--
Ian
abelard
2017-10-12 11:02:26 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
On Thu, 12 Oct 2017 11:46:43 +0100, Ian Jackson
Post by Ian Jackson
Was the immediate drop in the pound a vote of confidence in the UK
economy? OK, since the initial shock there's been a reasonable recovery,
but I suspect this is largely because nothing disastrous has happened
yet - and quite a lot of us are still living in hope that something that
isn't too bad will eventually emerge - although hopes are certainly
beginning to fade.
uk trade is only about 18% of uk economic activity...

therefore a drop of 10% in the £ would lose britain
10% of 18%...less than 2%...
the sort of number by which gdp rises in a year...


dropping your prices tends to increase your sales...
thus bringing advantages of scale and increased
profits....

i could expand plenty further....


socialist 'economics' is pants....
--
www.abelard.org
James Harris
2017-10-12 14:23:55 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
...
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
Ian, do you realise that the predictions of doom were only for the
short term? We are in that period now!
By "only for the short term" do you mean that the "doom" wouldn't last
for long? If so, why was anyone particularly worried?
Not being funny but I'm not sure I can say why certain people were
worried because I was not one of them! Would you mind saying what was
that worried or concerned you? Maybe I can respond to that rather than
me guessing about what the worries were.
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
Things are suppressed a bit due to effects such as inflation and
uncertainty. But there's no doom.
Maybe no doom yet - but there's certainly a lot of 'gloom'.
You mean things like the banks being about to relocate staff?
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
The promised firecracker turned out to be a damp squib.
Was the immediate drop in the pound a vote of confidence in the UK
economy? OK, since the initial shock there's been a reasonable recovery,
but I suspect this is largely because nothing disastrous has happened
yet - and quite a lot of us are still living in hope that something that
isn't too bad will eventually emerge - although hopes are certainly
beginning to fade.
OK. It's interesting to hear such views.

I am no expert but from what I've pieced together from those who know
more about this stuff than I do the pound had been artificially high for
some time (more than a year) due to the UK's financial operations being
lifted by fiscal and monetary policy. That's not my assessment; you may
remember that the IMF had been telling us that the pound was overvalued
- by between 5% and 20%, IIRC.

The markets assumed that on 23 June 2016 we would vote to remain in the
EU and had priced in business-as-usual. The vote shocked them and let
them know that we were about to go through a period of uncertainty.
Therefore the pound dropped.

In general terms, the pound's value against other currencies can be seen
to change on the loss of or resumption of certainty. For example, when
Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the Conservative leadership race the pound
popped up noticeably. I presume that was down to the UK getting the
certainty of a new PM in place sooner than the traders had expected.

I think you are right that if the EU talks look as though they are not
going to produce a trade deal then the pound will drop again. But then
over time as the UK migrates to a WTO deal with the EU and as it begins
to build up global trade the pound will rise back up. The process may
take a few years.

(At the moment, I suspect the pound is still overvalued due to the UK's
focus on financial markets.)
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
What's more, inflation is expected to drop back and the uncertainty
will go as our new relationship with the EU becomes clearer. As the
uncertainty goes businesses will increase investment again.
While you could be right, I can't share your absolute confidence.
I don't have /absolute/ confidence. But what does reassure me a lot is
not the rhetoric from Remain or Leave advocates but seeing the
investments that businesses are making in the UK.

For sure, UK-based SMEs will be holding back on growing their businesses
until they see more of how Brexit is going to work out and can see how
it is going to affect them. But notice that the big corporates who have
to look many years ahead are making significant investments in Britain.
They wouldn't be doing that unless they thought that the UK will be a
good place to do business.
--
James Harris
tim...
2017-10-12 10:51:39 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
...
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
Ian, do you realise that the predictions of doom were only for the short
term? We are in that period now!
Things are suppressed a bit due to effects such as inflation and
uncertainty. But there's no doom. The promised firecracker turned out to
be a damp squib.
What's more, inflation is expected to drop back and the uncertainty will
go as our new relationship with the EU becomes clearer. As the uncertainty
goes businesses will increase investment again.
There will be economic ups and downs, for sure. That's what normally
happens. But as time goes on it will become increasingly meaningless for
people to try to attribute such effects to the Brexit vote. I'd be more
concerned about the levels of debt which are being built up.
and the snowflakes voting in a Labour government so that they can collect
their free unicorn

tim
kat
2017-10-12 17:34:51 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
A close friend of mine said the same thing a few weeks ago.  Project
Fear had got to her, it didn't happen, so, then, other considerations
come into it.
How does she feel now?
That we should just get on and leave.
--
kat
Post by James Harris
^..^<
Bod
2017-10-12 17:45:34 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by kat
Post by James Harris
A close friend of mine said the same thing a few weeks ago.  Project
Fear had got to her, it didn't happen, so, then, other considerations
come into it.
How does she feel now?
That we should just get on and leave.
Yup, just leave NOW.
--
Bod
The Todal
2017-10-12 11:26:02 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--  James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
 Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
 But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he
would now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come
true and because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the
Brussels elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
A close friend of mine said the same thing a few weeks ago.  Project
Fear had got to her, it didn't happen, so, then, other considerations
come into it.
It's exactly the same with Global Warming. All these dire predictions
about climate change and how the world will end up with less food, more
droughts and floods and starvation. And none of it has come about, so
why on earth should we bother about it now?

Anyway, if it does happen there are lots of brainy people who will solve
it for us. We're a very resourceful country/world and we've always
solved all our problems in the past.
The Todal
2017-10-12 11:29:27 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Ian Jackson
Post by James Harris
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least
it is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have
been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--  James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem
with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
 Predictions of doom following all aspects of Brexit has so far proved
as reliable as religious 'end-of-the world' prophecies.
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887
"David Cameron, his Chancellor George Osborne and many other senior
figures who wanted to stay in the EU predicted an immediate economic
crisis if the UK voted to leave and it is true that the pound slumped
the day after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against
the dollar and 15% down against the euro.
 But predictions of immediate doom were wrong, with the UK economy
estimated to have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9%
among the world's G7 leading industrialised nations. UK growth has
slowed so far in 2017, but the economy is still expanding. Inflation
has risen since June 2016 to stand at 2.6%, but unemployment has
continued to fall, to stand at a 42 year low of 4.4%. Annual house
price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June 2016 but were still at
an inflation-beating 4.7% in the year to May 2017, according to
official ONS figures."
And Cabinet member Jeremy Hunt apparently told Iain Dale that he would
now vote Brexit because Osborne's predictions failed to come true and
because of the attitude towards the UK he's seen from the Brussels
elite. Treasury minister Liz Truss said similar today.
Realisation is dawning. :-)
There has to be more to it than that. No one could have their opinions
so radically altered simply because one man's predictions haven't
completely come true (yet).
Of course there's more to it than that.

It's the realisation that you can only succeed in politics and be a
contender for the leadership if you embrace the Will of the People and
renounce the heresy of Remaining.

Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM hardware, the choice of the majority.
Vidcapper
2017-10-12 06:40:57 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for
pragmatism in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal
but at least it is being discussed more realistically than the
hysterics we have been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a
problem with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Project Fear failed miserably last year, so what's the point in trying
to resuscitate it?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Incubus
2017-10-12 08:36:26 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Vidcapper
Post by The Todal
Post by Phi
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not
because I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for
pragmatism in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal
but at least it is being discussed more realistically than the
hysterics we have been treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a
problem with borders with Sweden and Finland.
Theresa May is still scared to admit that no deal will mean virtual
bankrupcy for our nation.
Project Fear failed miserably last year, so what's the point in trying
to resuscitate it?
It's the only dead donkey they have.
Judith
2017-10-13 01:44:21 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Phi
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because I
want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism in
what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it is
being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been treated
to hitherto.
Hooray!
--
James Harris
Why can't we have a deal like Norway, they don't seem to have a problem with
borders with Sweden and Finland.
They didn't have Mayhem's maniacs negotiating for them.
shutemdown
2017-10-11 12:28:09 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
hooray!

More Brexit headaches as trade with the EU rises and UK exports to the
rest of the world fall

LONDON – The UK's trade gap with the world widened and construction
output fell in the three months to August, according to the latest data
from the Office of National Statistics.

The UK's trade deficit with the rest of the world— the shortfall between
exports and imports — increased by £2.9 billion to £10.8 billion, the ONS
said.

Exports of goods to the European Union increased by 4.1%, while exports
to non-EU countries fell more than 8% led by a decrease in fuel exports.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-economy-exports-construction-2017-10?
r=US&IR=T
abelard
2017-10-11 12:39:33 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
On Wed, 11 Oct 2017 12:28:09 -0000 (UTC), shutemdown
Post by shutemdown
Post by James Harris
I'm loving this talk on the media about No Deal. I say that not because
I want there to be no deal or because of some masochistic streak.
But what I do like is that for the first time it is being discussed
without the political equivalent of people running around in a panic
screaming about the end being nigh. There is still room for pragmatism
in what the public are being told to expect from No Deal but at least it
is being discussed more realistically than the hysterics we have been
treated to hitherto.
Hooray!
hooray!
More Brexit headaches as trade with the EU rises and UK exports to the
rest of the world fall
LONDON – The UK's trade gap with the world widened and construction
output fell in the three months to August, according to the latest data
from the Office of National Statistics.
The UK's trade deficit with the rest of the world— the shortfall between
exports and imports — increased by £2.9 billion to £10.8 billion, the ONS
said.
Exports of goods to the European Union increased by 4.1%, while exports
to non-EU countries fell more than 8% led by a decrease in fuel exports.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-economy-exports-construction-2017-10?
r=US&IR=T
why do you care about trade deficits?

eg, they end up with pieces of paper while britain ends up
with useful good and chattels...
--
www.abelard.org
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