Discussion:
What the EUSSR has in mind for us if we remain.
(too old to reply)
harry
2018-03-09 08:49:16 UTC
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Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist

And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
Nightjar
2018-03-09 10:11:01 UTC
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Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
We are not Ireland and the UK government has already strongly resisted
any attempts by the EU to get us to take more asylum seekers. There is
no reason to think that would change were we to stay in the EU.
--
--

Colin Bignell
Ophelia
2018-03-09 10:19:21 UTC
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"harry" wrote in message news:c6254736-230b-4fed-8396-***@googlegroups.com...

Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist

And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201

==

Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.

Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
Lancer
2018-03-10 10:34:52 UTC
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Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
Ophelia
2018-03-10 11:29:45 UTC
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Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.

==

Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
Nightjar
2018-03-10 12:41:51 UTC
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Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there.  Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88%
of the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-10 13:43:46 UTC
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Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88% of
the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
of course they do

Historically the EU shovels lots of money in their direction

why would any county in that position want to leave

tim
Nightjar
2018-03-10 16:58:03 UTC
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Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there.  Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88%
of the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
of course they do
Historically the EU shovels lots of money in their direction
Since 2014, Ireland has become a net contributor to the EU and that
looks to continue, particularly after Brexit.
Post by tim...
why would any county in that position want to leave
Best ask Ophelia, who suggested they would want a referendum.
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-10 20:00:50 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88%
of the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
of course they do
Historically the EU shovels lots of money in their direction
Since 2014, Ireland has become a net contributor to the EU
only in a very small way

And I suspect that pre-Brexit, many of them might have expected a return to
negative contributions in the future, as E Europe becomes richer and Ireland
stands still.
Post by Nightjar
and that looks to continue, particularly after Brexit.
Brexit changes things of course

None of us can know what the Irish might think if Brexit turns out to be bad
for them

My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically wedded to
the EU, they are only members because it is good for them. Should that
cease to be so obvious, so might their position

tim
Nightjar
2018-03-11 09:41:36 UTC
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On 10-Mar-18 8:00 PM, tim... wrote:
...
Post by tim...
My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically wedded
to the EU, they are only members because it is good for them.  Should
that cease to be so obvious, so might their position
The UK appears to be the only member state where there is any real
support for leaving. Even in Italy, which is one of the most
Eurosceptic, only about 35% of the population are in favour of leaving.
Most of the rest of Europe recognises that being in the EU is a good
thing, even if some of the British public don't.
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-11 10:59:17 UTC
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...
Post by tim...
My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically wedded
to the EU, they are only members because it is good for them. Should
that cease to be so obvious, so might their position
The UK appears to be the only member state where there is any real support
for leaving. Even in Italy, which is one of the most Eurosceptic, only
about 35% of the population are in favour of leaving. Most of the rest of
Europe recognises that being in the EU is a good thing, even if some of
the British public don't.
I have made this argument so many times:

Most of Europe consists of:

poor countries that are shoveled huge amounts of dosh from the EU
countries that are ideologically wedded to the EU
The small, relatively rich, trading nations that gain a huge increase (a
factor of 100) in their potential market, at very little cost by being in
the SM.

Why would any of these countries think about leaving?

The UK is none of these

And neither is Ireland (for different reasons)

tim
Nightjar
2018-03-12 09:11:51 UTC
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Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by tim...
My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically
wedded to the EU, they are only members because it is good for them.
Should that cease to be so obvious, so might their position
The UK appears to be the only member state where there is any real
support for leaving. Even in Italy, which is one of the most
Eurosceptic, only about 35% of the population are in favour of
leaving. Most of the rest of Europe recognises that being in the EU is
a good thing, even if some of the British public don't.
poor countries that are shoveled huge amounts of dosh from the EU
countries that are ideologically wedded to the EU
The small, relatively rich, trading nations that gain a huge increase (a
factor of 100)
Can you substantiate that figure?
Post by tim...
in their potential market, at very little cost by being
in the SM.
Why would any of these countries think about leaving?
The UK is none of these
The UK may not fit one of the stereotypes you have created for the sake
of your argument, but it does have one thing in common with the other
countries; it benefits significantly from being a member of the EU. All
the signs are that leaving will be to our detriment, with the only
disagreement among forecasters being about just how bad it will be.

Vince Cable has said that Brexit appealed to people with nostalgia for a
time when passports were blue, faces were white and the map was pink.
That is a sound bite that he may come to regret, but he has grasped the
essence of the desire to leave; it is driven largely by emotional
responses that don't stand up to rational scrutiny.
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-12 09:41:57 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by tim...
My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically
wedded to the EU, they are only members because it is good for them.
Should that cease to be so obvious, so might their position
The UK appears to be the only member state where there is any real
support for leaving. Even in Italy, which is one of the most
Eurosceptic, only about 35% of the population are in favour of leaving.
Most of the rest of Europe recognises that being in the EU is a good
thing, even if some of the British public don't.
poor countries that are shoveled huge amounts of dosh from the EU
countries that are ideologically wedded to the EU
The small, relatively rich, trading nations that gain a huge increase (a
factor of 100)
Can you substantiate that figure?
size of EU 500 million

size of Finland 5 million
Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
in their potential market, at very little cost by being in the SM.
Why would any of these countries think about leaving?
The UK is none of these
The UK may not fit one of the stereotypes you have created for the sake of
your argument, but it does have one thing in common with the other
countries; it benefits significantly from being a member of the EU.
at a cost not suffered by many of the other countries
Post by Nightjar
All the signs are that leaving will be to our detriment,
with some political benefits
Post by Nightjar
with the only disagreement among forecasters being about just how bad it
will be.
No that isn't the only disagreement. There is disagreement over whether the
methods used to show the costs are valid at all.
Post by Nightjar
Vince Cable
Oh, great choice
Post by Nightjar
has said that Brexit appealed to people with nostalgia for a time when
passports were blue, faces were white and the map was pink.
for some people perhaps

others have more sustainable reasons.
Post by Nightjar
That is a sound bite that he may come to regret, but he has grasped the
essence of the desire to leave; it is driven largely by emotional
responses that don't stand up to rational scrutiny.
Don't agree

tim
Yellow
2018-03-12 16:50:02 UTC
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Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Vince Cable
Oh, great choice
Post by Nightjar
has said that Brexit appealed to people with nostalgia for a time when
passports were blue, faces were white and the map was pink.
for some people perhaps
others have more sustainable reasons.
Post by Nightjar
That is a sound bite that he may come to regret, but he has grasped the
essence of the desire to leave; it is driven largely by emotional
responses that don't stand up to rational scrutiny.
Don't agree
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
Nightjar
2018-03-13 17:13:22 UTC
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On 12-Mar-18 4:50 PM, Yellow wrote:
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.

Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
--
--

Colin Bignell
Yellow
2018-03-13 17:19:08 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
Should we therefore screen out all votes made by people that we do not
consider voted for a proper reason?
pensive hamster
2018-03-13 18:05:42 UTC
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Post by Yellow
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
Should we therefore screen out all votes made by people that we do not
consider voted for a proper reason?
Who is "we" there? You'd probably end up with different factions
all screening out each other's votes.

There have been petitions against misleading political advertising,
but they didn't get much support, eg.:

https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/119416

'Make it illegal for any UK political figure to knowingly lie or mislead.

'The general population of the UK are tired of listening to outright lies
and misrepresentation from the political elite in order to gain votes.

'With a more honest representation of facts our democracy would
hand power back to the people it governs.'

78,468 signatures
Nightjar
2018-03-14 09:40:25 UTC
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Post by Yellow
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
Should we therefore screen out all votes made by people that we do not
consider voted for a proper reason?
We should make it a serious offence to try unduly to influence a vote by
means of deliberate falsehoods or misinformation.
--
--

Colin Bignell
Paul Cummins
1970-01-01 00:00:00 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
We should make it a serious offence to try unduly to influence a
vote by means of deliberate falsehoods or misinformation.
Define "Deliberate falsehood" or "Misinformation"

IF two people play golf, then the loser "came second" where the winner
was "only one away from coming last"

Neither of these is either a deliberate falsehood or misinformation.
--
Paul Cummins - Always a NetHead
Wasting Bandwidth since 1981
====
Visit North Kent's 2nd biggest supplier of Sour Grapes
http://www.grapesdirect.co.uk
Nightjar
2018-03-15 09:31:14 UTC
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Post by Paul Cummins
Post by Nightjar
We should make it a serious offence to try unduly to influence a
vote by means of deliberate falsehoods or misinformation.
Define "Deliberate falsehood" or "Misinformation"
The English legal system doesn't need such terms to be defined. It
leaves it to the Courts to decide what they mean in individual cases.
--
--

Colin Bignell
harry
2018-03-14 17:14:47 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
Post by Yellow
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
Should we therefore screen out all votes made by people that we do not
consider voted for a proper reason?
We should make it a serious offence to try unduly to influence a vote by
means of deliberate falsehoods or misinformation.
We should make manifestos legally binding.
n***@gmail.com
2018-03-14 17:47:23 UTC
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Enforced by whose army?
pensive hamster
2018-03-14 17:48:03 UTC
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Post by harry
Post by Nightjar
Post by Yellow
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
Should we therefore screen out all votes made by people that we do not
consider voted for a proper reason?
We should make it a serious offence to try unduly to influence a vote by
means of deliberate falsehoods or misinformation.
We should make manifestos legally binding.
Ideally, yes. Manifestos do amount to a kind of promise or
even contract.

Or perhaps political parties could be docked a certain number of
votes, depending how shamelessly they breach their manifesto
pledges.
Ophelia
2018-03-14 18:31:20 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
Post by Yellow
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
Should we therefore screen out all votes made by people that we do not
consider voted for a proper reason?
We should make it a serious offence to try unduly to influence a vote by
means of deliberate falsehoods or misinformation.
We should make manifestos legally binding.

==

The idea that Britain is a small, weak, vulnerable country incapable of
national independence has emerged as a core anti-Brexit argument. With a
mixture of despair (from parts of the Right) and glee (from parts of the
Left) we are being told that we must eschew ‘nostalgia’ and ‘post-imperial
delusions’, and ‘wake up to reality’ as ‘a small offshore island’, while the
big strong powers of the European Union put us in our place, leaving us a
simple choice between accepting the terms they dictate or facing economic
and political disaster. Some obdurate Remainers, sadly, seem to applaud
insulting comments from leading EU officials and politicians, as if we
deserve to be treated as inferiors. This is a strange mindset that would
merit serious study.

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/crippling-illusion-decline/
pensive hamster
2018-03-14 19:17:20 UTC
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Post by Ophelia
The idea that Britain is a small, weak, vulnerable country incapable of
national independence has emerged as a core anti-Brexit argument.
No it hasn't, the guy is a fantasist. Perhaps if he were to cite
someone halfway sensible saying we are a small, weak, vulnerable
country incapable of national independence, it might be possible
to take him more seriously.
Post by Ophelia
With a
mixture of despair (from parts of the Right) and glee (from parts of the
Left) we are being told that we must eschew ‘nostalgia’ and ‘post-imperial
delusions’, and ‘wake up to reality’ as ‘a small offshore island’, while the
big strong powers of the European Union put us in our place, leaving us a
simple choice between accepting the terms they dictate or facing economic
and political disaster. Some obdurate Remainers, sadly, seem to applaud
insulting comments from leading EU officials and politicians, as if we
deserve to be treated as inferiors. This is a strange mindset that would
merit serious study.
Robert Tombs seems to be just blathering. Maybe inventing
the Internet was a bad idea, it just encourages people who
make the Mail seem a model of moderate good sense.
Post by Ophelia
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/crippling-illusion-decline/
tim...
2018-03-15 08:05:03 UTC
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Post by pensive hamster
Post by Ophelia
The idea that Britain is a small, weak, vulnerable country incapable of
national independence has emerged as a core anti-Brexit argument.
No it hasn't, the guy is a fantasist. Perhaps if he were to cite
someone halfway sensible saying we are a small, weak, vulnerable
country incapable of national independence, it might be possible
to take him more seriously.
If you haven't heard that comment from Remoaners then you really haven't
been listening

I hear it all the time

tim
pensive hamster
2018-03-15 17:32:00 UTC
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Post by tim...
Post by pensive hamster
Post by Ophelia
The idea that Britain is a small, weak, vulnerable country incapable of
national independence has emerged as a core anti-Brexit argument.
No it hasn't, the guy is a fantasist. Perhaps if he were to cite
someone halfway sensible saying we are a small, weak, vulnerable
country incapable of national independence, it might be possible
to take him more seriously.
If you haven't heard that comment from Remoaners then you really haven't
been listening
I hear it all the time
Cite?

Nightjar
2018-03-15 09:29:32 UTC
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On 14-Mar-18 5:14 PM, harry wrote:
...
Post by harry
We should make manifestos legally binding.
How would that work with a minority government or a coalition?
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-13 19:01:05 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates from
the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims. An
emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they have
been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
But there were similar lies on the other side

and surely you are not suggesting that everybody who voted Remain was an
analytical person so there was no-one who fell for them!

tim
Nightjar
2018-03-14 09:35:28 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions
or the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers
manipulated them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU
costs the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation
emanates from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting
the claims. An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant
about what they have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
But there were similar lies on the other side...
The arguments to remain are essentially economic. Economic forecasts may
be wrong, but they are rarely the deliberate lies and intentionally
misleading statements that characterised the Leave campaign.
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-14 09:58:17 UTC
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Post by Nightjar
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions or
the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers manipulated
them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU costs
the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation emanates
from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting the claims.
An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant about what they
have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
But there were similar lies on the other side...
The arguments to remain are essentially economic.
That's the point

the arguments to leave are not.

No-one on the Leave side argues that leaving is fundamentally better
economically. They argue that it is fundamentally better politically and
the economics are much the same.

The only reason that leave side have to come up with economic "over"
argument is to counter the remain "over" arguments

If the Remainers over egg the pudding (which they did, by a zillion miles)
then it is hardly fair to complain that leave did the same
Post by Nightjar
Economic forecasts may be wrong, but they are rarely the deliberate lies
and intentionally misleading statements that characterised the Leave
campaign.
The statements of the remain side were deliberately misleading

They overstated the effects immediate of a leave vote by miles.

And they deliberately miscalculated the individual value of trivially
smaller long term total growth in the economy, which is actually
attributable to leaving resulting in a smaller increase in immigration (and
therefore probably leaves individual income much the same)

tim
Yellow
2018-03-14 13:22:48 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Nightjar
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions
or the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers
manipulated them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU
costs the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation
emanates from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting
the claims. An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant
about what they have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
But there were similar lies on the other side...
The arguments to remain are essentially economic. Economic forecasts may
be wrong, but they are rarely the deliberate lies and intentionally
misleading statements that characterised the Leave campaign.
And they say Leave voters are stupid. :-)
pensive hamster
2018-03-14 13:27:51 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Yellow
Post by Nightjar
"Nightjar" wrote in message
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions
or the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers
manipulated them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU
costs the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation
emanates from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting
the claims. An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant
about what they have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
But there were similar lies on the other side...
The arguments to remain are essentially economic. Economic forecasts may
be wrong, but they are rarely the deliberate lies and intentionally
misleading statements that characterised the Leave campaign.
And they say Leave voters are stupid. :-)
Who says that? Cite?
Ophelia
2018-03-14 14:48:00 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Nightjar
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by Yellow
But so what if people did vote emotionally? For either cause. Does that
make their opinion invalid?
It makes it uncertain whether they were expressing their own opinions
or the opinions that self-publicists and lurid headline writers
manipulated them into thinking they should hold.
Tell an analytical person an outright lie, such as being in the EU
costs the UK £350 million a week or that 75% of all UK legislation
emanates from the EU and they will check the facts before rejecting
the claims. An emotional person is far more likely to get indignant
about what they have been told, rather than to check whether it is true.
But there were similar lies on the other side...
The arguments to remain are essentially economic. Economic forecasts may
be wrong, but they are rarely the deliberate lies and intentionally
misleading statements that characterised the Leave campaign.
And they say Leave voters are stupid. :-)

==

lol

There are none so blind ...
Nightjar
2018-03-13 17:05:45 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by tim...
My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically
wedded to the EU, they are only members because it is good for
them. Should that cease to be so obvious, so might their position
The UK appears to be the only member state where there is any real
support for leaving. Even in Italy, which is one of the most
Eurosceptic, only about 35% of the population are in favour of
leaving. Most of the rest of Europe recognises that being in the EU
is a good thing, even if some of the British public don't.
poor countries that are shoveled huge amounts of dosh from the EU
countries that are ideologically wedded to the EU
The small, relatively rich, trading nations that gain a huge increase
(a factor of 100)
Can you substantiate that figure?
size of EU 500 million
size of Finland 5 million
Unless you are trying to argue that you have to be in the EU to sell to
it (which would be very bad news for the UK post Brexit) and can only
sell to Norway if you are outside the EU (likewise) that does nothing to
support your claim.
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
in their potential market, at very little cost by being in the SM.
Why would any of these countries think about leaving?
The UK is none of these
The UK may not fit one of the stereotypes you have created for the
sake of your argument, but it does have one thing in common with the
other countries; it benefits significantly from being a member of the EU.
at a cost not suffered by many of the other countries
Post by Nightjar
All the signs are that leaving will be to our detriment,
with some political benefits
Post by Nightjar
with the only disagreement among forecasters being about just how bad
it will be.
No that isn't the only disagreement.  There is disagreement over whether
the methods used to show the costs are valid at all.
Only from those who are in denial about the likely outcome of Brexit. As
I said in another thread, economic forecasts have been shown to be only
slightly more likely to be right than random chance. That is a good
reason to question any individual forecast. However, when you get a
large number of them, all predicting that Brexit will be bad for the UK,
that is so far from what random chance would predict that the only
uncertainty is how bad it will be.
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Vince Cable
Oh, great choice
Post by Nightjar
has said that Brexit appealed to people with nostalgia for a time when
passports were blue, faces were white and the map was pink.
for some people perhaps
It only needed to be a small percentage of the voters.
Post by tim...
others have more sustainable reasons.
Post by Nightjar
That is a sound bite that he may come to regret, but he has grasped
the essence of the desire to leave; it is driven largely by emotional
responses that don't stand up to rational scrutiny.
Don't agree
I wouldn't expect you to have a Road to Damascus moment on the basis of
my posts. However, I can't think of single reason put forward for
leaving the EU that actually makes sense if examined closely.
--
--

Colin Bignell
tim...
2018-03-13 19:15:00 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by tim...
My point is that I don't believe that the Irish are ideologically
wedded to the EU, they are only members because it is good for them.
Should that cease to be so obvious, so might their position
The UK appears to be the only member state where there is any real
support for leaving. Even in Italy, which is one of the most
Eurosceptic, only about 35% of the population are in favour of
leaving. Most of the rest of Europe recognises that being in the EU is
a good thing, even if some of the British public don't.
poor countries that are shoveled huge amounts of dosh from the EU
countries that are ideologically wedded to the EU
The small, relatively rich, trading nations that gain a huge increase
(a factor of 100)
Can you substantiate that figure?
size of EU 500 million
size of Finland 5 million
Unless you are trying to argue that you have to be in the EU to sell to it
(which would be very bad news for the UK post Brexit) and can only sell to
Norway if you are outside the EU (likewise) that does nothing to support
your claim.
I'm only using the same argument that is used by remainers to justify why we
need to stay in the Single Market to gain such benefits.

I am quite happy for you to argue that it is unnecessary.

That is already my position.
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by tim...
in their potential market, at very little cost by being in the SM.
Why would any of these countries think about leaving?
The UK is none of these
The UK may not fit one of the stereotypes you have created for the sake
of your argument, but it does have one thing in common with the other
countries; it benefits significantly from being a member of the EU.
at a cost not suffered by many of the other countries
Post by Nightjar
All the signs are that leaving will be to our detriment,
with some political benefits
Post by Nightjar
with the only disagreement among forecasters being about just how bad it
will be.
No that isn't the only disagreement. There is disagreement over whether
the methods used to show the costs are valid at all.
Only from those who are in denial about the likely outcome of Brexit.
I am quite happy to accept that there will be some dis-benefits

I just don't accept the claimed disastrous outcome from an obvious flawed
model (it is obvious flawed because as no-one has ever left such a body
before, there is no way for the assumptions that they have made on the
effect of leaving to be verified.)
As I said in another thread, economic forecasts have been shown to be only
slightly more likely to be right than random chance. That is a good reason
to question any individual forecast. However, when you get a large number
of them, all predicting that Brexit will be bad for the UK, that is so far
from what random chance would predict that the only uncertainty is how bad
it will be.
There is no independent "large number of them" they are all created using
the same model.

The large number is simply 100 people running similar data though the same
program and, unsurprisingly getting similar result.

Economic models don't grow on trees. They take tens of man years of effort
to get right. Consequently there isn't competition in this sector.

And any errors in the model caused by lack of verification of that part of
the model will feed through to all results.
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Vince Cable
Oh, great choice
Post by Nightjar
has said that Brexit appealed to people with nostalgia for a time when
passports were blue, faces were white and the map was pink.
for some people perhaps
It only needed to be a small percentage of the voters.
Post by tim...
others have more sustainable reasons.
Post by Nightjar
That is a sound bite that he may come to regret, but he has grasped the
essence of the desire to leave; it is driven largely by emotional
responses that don't stand up to rational scrutiny.
Don't agree
I wouldn't expect you to have a Road to Damascus moment on the basis of my
posts. However, I can't think of single reason put forward for leaving the
EU that actually makes sense if examined closely.
Perhaps that's because you are from the class who benefits for the excessive
availability of workers prepared to do minimum wage work on slave labour
terms (even if you personally offer your employees better terms.)

tim
pensive hamster
2018-03-13 20:34:11 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
"Nightjar" wrote in message
[...]
As I said in another thread, economic forecasts have been shown to be only
slightly more likely to be right than random chance. That is a good reason
to question any individual forecast. However, when you get a large number
of them, all predicting that Brexit will be bad for the UK, that is so far
from what random chance would predict that the only uncertainty is how bad
it will be.
There is no independent "large number of them" they are all created using
the same model.
That seems most unlikely. Do you have any evidence that
they are all created using the same model? Which model
would that be, specifically?

This site suggests there is diversity:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2011/06/basics.htm

'... Despite their diversity, empirical economic models have
features in common. Each will allow for inputs, or exogenous
variables, which do not need to be explained by the model.
These include policy variables, such as government spending
and tax rates, or nonpolicy variables, like the weather. Then
there are the outputs, called dependent variables (for example,
the inflation rate), which the model will seek to explain when
some or all of the exogenous variables come into play.
[...]
'There are, however, fundamental differences among economists
regarding how an empirical model’s equations should be derived. ...'
The large number is simply 100 people running similar data though the same
program and, unsurprisingly getting similar result.
Which program would that be, specifically?

[...]
Nightjar
2018-03-14 09:48:15 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
...
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
I wouldn't expect you to have a Road to Damascus moment on the basis
of my posts. However, I can't think of single reason put forward for
leaving the EU that actually makes sense if examined closely.
Perhaps that's because you are from the class who benefits for the
excessive availability of workers prepared to do minimum wage work on
slave labour terms (even if you personally offer your employees better
terms.)
There are much better ways of protecting the rights of workers than
leaving the EU. Indeed, there are serious concerns that leaving will
have exactly the opposite effect.
--
--

Colin Bignell
Yellow
2018-03-14 13:25:08 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
I wouldn't expect you to have a Road to Damascus moment on the basis
of my posts. However, I can't think of single reason put forward for
leaving the EU that actually makes sense if examined closely.
Perhaps that's because you are from the class who benefits for the
excessive availability of workers prepared to do minimum wage work on
slave labour terms (even if you personally offer your employees better
terms.)
There are much better ways of protecting the rights of workers than
leaving the EU. Indeed, there are serious concerns that leaving will
have exactly the opposite effect.
No there aren't and instead these "concerns" are (a) part of project
fear and (b) part of Labour's election campaign propaganda.

If you swallow either whole, then you are a fool.
tim...
2018-03-14 14:33:04 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Nightjar
...
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
I wouldn't expect you to have a Road to Damascus moment on the basis of
my posts. However, I can't think of single reason put forward for
leaving the EU that actually makes sense if examined closely.
Perhaps that's because you are from the class who benefits for the
excessive availability of workers prepared to do minimum wage work on
slave labour terms (even if you personally offer your employees better
terms.)
There are much better ways of protecting the rights of workers than
leaving the EU.
which the Tories are unwilling to enact and the Labour party are incapable
of enforcing.
Post by Nightjar
Indeed, there are serious concerns that leaving will have exactly the
opposite effect.
most unlikely

tim
MM
2018-03-12 09:10:30 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88% of
the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
of course they do
Historically the EU shovels lots of money in their direction
It shovels lots of money to the UK as well. Didn't stop the Brexiters,
however.

MM
tim...
2018-03-12 09:36:51 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Post by tim...
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88% of
the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
of course they do
Historically the EU shovels lots of money in their direction
It shovels lots of money to the UK as well. Didn't stop the Brexiters,
however.
No

it just gives us a percentage of our own money back

Other countries get shovels full of extra money (as well as their own money
back)

tim
Tufnell Park
2018-03-12 09:15:32 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Nightjar
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there.  Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
They are not stupid enough to want to. A poll last year found that 88%
of the Irish people want to stay in the EU.
of course they do
Historically the EU shovels lots of money in their direction
why would any county in that position want to leave
tim
The difference is they are on the gravy train whereas the UK were/are
net payer inners.
MM
2018-03-12 09:09:38 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
==
Yes, even when they objected which they were told should have stopped it.
Nothing new there. Time they had a referendum.
As it was an Irish government department what good would a referendum
do? Surely you mean General Election, which will be around April 2021.
==
Will a General Election give them a chance of leaving the EU?
The Irish do NOT want to leave the EU, neither in the North nor in the
South.

MM
Lancer
2018-03-10 10:30:06 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
"Locals in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare, who attended a public meeting this
week, have voted overwhelmingly to reject Government plans to
accommodate 115 asylum seekers in the town."


Government plans Harry, not EU.
harry
2018-03-11 18:37:00 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
"Locals in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare, who attended a public meeting this
week, have voted overwhelmingly to reject Government plans to
accommodate 115 asylum seekers in the town."
Government plans Harry, not EU.
They have their orders.
harry
2018-03-13 18:02:47 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
"Locals in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare, who attended a public meeting this
week, have voted overwhelmingly to reject Government plans to
accommodate 115 asylum seekers in the town."
Government plans Harry, not EU.
Orders from the Fuhrerin.
https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-uk-will-pay-a-price-if-it-stops-eu-migration/
Ophelia
2018-03-13 21:46:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
"Locals in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare, who attended a public meeting this
week, have voted overwhelmingly to reject Government plans to
accommodate 115 asylum seekers in the town."
Government plans Harry, not EU.
Orders from the Fuhrerin.
https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-uk-will-pay-a-price-if-it-stops-eu-migration/
==

She threatens what she will do after we have left????
harry
2018-03-15 08:47:44 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by harry
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
"Locals in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare, who attended a public meeting this
week, have voted overwhelmingly to reject Government plans to
accommodate 115 asylum seekers in the town."
Government plans Harry, not EU.
Orders from the Fuhrerin.
https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-uk-will-pay-a-price-if-it-stops-eu-migration/
==
She threatens what she will do after we have left????
All part of project fear.
She's a nasty piece of work.
Ophelia
2018-03-15 09:35:52 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by harry
Post by Lancer
Post by harry
Merkels migrants.
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2018/03/tiny-irish-town-taking-in-a-33-population-increase-in-migrants-had-no-say-locals-fear-being-called-racist
And for the brain dead.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/lisdoonvarna-locals-reject-direct-provision-plan-1.3413201
"Locals in Lisdoonvarna, Co Clare, who attended a public meeting this
week, have voted overwhelmingly to reject Government plans to
accommodate 115 asylum seekers in the town."
Government plans Harry, not EU.
Orders from the Fuhrerin.
https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-uk-will-pay-a-price-if-it-stops-eu-migration/
==
She threatens what she will do after we have left????
All part of project fear.
She's a nasty piece of work.

==

No surprise there!
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