Discussion:
They say after Brexit there'll be food rotting in the fields. It's already started
(too old to reply)
MM
2017-08-05 08:45:04 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Summary: A crisis is mounting.

"Farms in the UK rely on fruit and vegetable pickers from the European
Union. But this summer they’re staying away, and the harvest will be
hit

"In the wake of an ocean of writing linking Brexit to the zeitgeisty
Dunkirk spirit, here’s one more martial metaphor. Self-evidently, this
is the phoney war stage of the process. Negotiations have barely
started; the prime minister is on holiday. Most importantly, the
fragile tangle of threads that defines what passes for Britain’s
economic wellbeing -- that mixture of affordable essentials, freely
available credit and dependable house prices which ensures no one gets
too uppity about stagnating wages -- just about remains intact.
Meanwhile, ministers -- and Labour politicians -- talk about the
fundamentals of leaving the European Union as if we can push Brussels
in any direction we fancy and freely choose no end of measures to ease
our passage out.

"The recent noise about freedom of movement is a case in point. If the
government has a coherent position, it seems to be that migration from
the EU under current rules will end in 2019, but also carry on, with
-- according to the home secretary, anyway -- the proviso that during
an 'implementation phase' of up to four years, people from the EU will
simply have to add their names to a national register. Thus, a great
human army which keeps so much of Britain’s economy ticking over will
still be available, just as long as the right arrangements are put in
place.

"This is, of course, somewhat less than credible, as evidenced by a
mounting crisis that has yet to turn critical but is bubbling away
across the country. At the very least, we are fundamentally changing
the basis on which people can live and work in the UK, swapping
residence as a right for a much more uncertain system dependent on
political caprice.

"If you wanted to be more dramatic, you might say that the 2016
European referendum in effect put a huge neon sign over Britain,
saying, 'Foreigners not welcome'. And to make matters worse, the value
of sterling is making coming here even less attractive.

" 'The perception from overseas is we are xenophobic, we’re racist,
and the pound has plummeted too. We’ve gone with Brexit and that makes
us look unfriendly.' Those are the words of John Hardman, director of
Hops Labour Solutions, which supplies about 12,000 workers a year to
food-growers. He reckons that when it comes to 'food-picking jobs in
agriculture -- which means everything from strawberries to brussels
sprouts', there is currently a Brexit-related shortfall of about 20%,
which chimes with recent surveys by the National Farmers Union."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/05/brexit-uk-food-industry-eu-fruit-veg-pickers

And even if we decided one way or another to stay in, the damage has
already been done. Those pickers from the EU will likely stay away for
years to come, irrespective of what kind of -- or any -- Brexit
there is. Until at least signs appear that the natives are friendly.

MM

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Norman Wells
2017-08-05 10:28:28 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
"Farms in the UK rely on fruit and vegetable pickers from the European
Union. But this summer they’re staying away, and the harvest will be
hit
Will it? Where's the evidence? If it will, though, it's because
farmers won't pay them an attractive rate. It's called supply and demand.
Post by MM
"In the wake of an ocean of writing linking Brexit to the zeitgeisty
Dunkirk spirit, here’s one more martial metaphor. Self-evidently, this
is the phoney war stage of the process. Negotiations have barely
started; the prime minister is on holiday. Most importantly, the
fragile tangle of threads that defines what passes for Britain’s
economic wellbeing -- that mixture of affordable essentials, freely
available credit and dependable house prices which ensures no one gets
too uppity about stagnating wages -- just about remains intact.
Meanwhile, ministers -- and Labour politicians -- talk about the
fundamentals of leaving the European Union as if we can push Brussels
in any direction we fancy and freely choose no end of measures to ease
our passage out.
Do they?
Post by MM
"The recent noise about freedom of movement is a case in point.
Is it?
Post by MM
If the
government has a coherent position, it seems to be that migration from
the EU under current rules will end in 2019, but also carry on, with
-- according to the home secretary, anyway -- the proviso that during
an 'implementation phase' of up to four years, people from the EU will
simply have to add their names to a national register. Thus, a great
human army which keeps so much of Britain’s economy ticking over will
still be available, just as long as the right arrangements are put in
place.
"This is, of course, somewhat less than credible, as evidenced by a
mounting crisis that has yet to turn critical but is bubbling away
across the country. At the very least, we are fundamentally changing
the basis on which people can live and work in the UK, swapping
residence as a right for a much more uncertain system dependent on
political caprice.
Agricultural work is seasonal. Most of those from the EU come to work
for the season. They don't need to acquire rights of residence, just a
work permit.
Post by MM
"If you wanted to be more dramatic,
... which I don't, thank you - Project Fear is dramatic enough as it is.
Post by MM
you might say that the 2016
European referendum in effect put a huge neon sign over Britain,
saying, 'Foreigners not welcome'.
Yes, dear.
Post by MM
And to make matters worse, the value
of sterling is making coming here even less attractive.
Then we have to pay them enough so that it is attractive enough. It's
basic economics.
Post by MM
" 'The perception from overseas is we are xenophobic, we’re racist,
and the pound has plummeted too. We’ve gone with Brexit and that makes
us look unfriendly.' Those are the words of John Hardman, director of
Hops Labour Solutions, which supplies about 12,000 workers a year to
food-growers. He reckons that when it comes to 'food-picking jobs in
agriculture -- which means everything from strawberries to brussels
sprouts', there is currently a Brexit-related shortfall of about 20%,
which chimes with recent surveys by the National Farmers Union."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/05/brexit-uk-food-industry-eu-fruit-veg-pickers
Then he needs to pay them more, not keep wages where they were and moan
that he can't attract the workers.
Post by MM
And even if we decided one way or another to stay in, the damage has
already been done. Those pickers from the EU will likely stay away for
years to come, irrespective of what kind of -- or any -- Brexit
there is. Until at least signs appear that the natives are friendly.
They'll come if the wages are right.
Post by MM
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R. Mark Clayton
2017-08-05 11:14:02 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
"Farms in the UK rely on fruit and vegetable pickers from the European
Union. But this summer they’re staying away, and the harvest will be
hit
"In the wake of an ocean of writing linking Brexit to the zeitgeisty
Dunkirk spirit, here’s one more martial metaphor. Self-evidently, this
is the phoney war stage of the process. Negotiations have barely
started; the prime minister is on holiday. Most importantly, the
fragile tangle of threads that defines what passes for Britain’s
economic wellbeing -- that mixture of affordable essentials, freely
available credit and dependable house prices which ensures no one gets
too uppity about stagnating wages -- just about remains intact.
Meanwhile, ministers -- and Labour politicians -- talk about the
fundamentals of leaving the European Union as if we can push Brussels
in any direction we fancy and freely choose no end of measures to ease
our passage out.
"The recent noise about freedom of movement is a case in point. If the
government has a coherent position, it seems to be that migration from
the EU under current rules will end in 2019, but also carry on, with
-- according to the home secretary, anyway -- the proviso that during
an 'implementation phase' of up to four years, people from the EU will
simply have to add their names to a national register. Thus, a great
human army which keeps so much of Britain’s economy ticking over will
still be available, just as long as the right arrangements are put in
place.
"This is, of course, somewhat less than credible, as evidenced by a
mounting crisis that has yet to turn critical but is bubbling away
across the country. At the very least, we are fundamentally changing
the basis on which people can live and work in the UK, swapping
residence as a right for a much more uncertain system dependent on
political caprice.
"If you wanted to be more dramatic, you might say that the 2016
European referendum in effect put a huge neon sign over Britain,
saying, 'Foreigners not welcome'. And to make matters worse, the value
of sterling is making coming here even less attractive.
" 'The perception from overseas is we are xenophobic, we’re racist,
and the pound has plummeted too. We’ve gone with Brexit and that makes
us look unfriendly.' Those are the words of John Hardman, director of
Hops Labour Solutions, which supplies about 12,000 workers a year to
food-growers. He reckons that when it comes to 'food-picking jobs in
agriculture -- which means everything from strawberries to brussels
sprouts', there is currently a Brexit-related shortfall of about 20%,
which chimes with recent surveys by the National Farmers Union."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/05/brexit-uk-food-industry-eu-fruit-veg-pickers
And even if we decided one way or another to stay in, the damage has
already been done. Those pickers from the EU will likely stay away for
years to come, irrespective of what kind of -- or any -- Brexit
there is. Until at least signs appear that the natives are friendly.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.

There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
tim...
2017-08-05 11:42:47 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs

One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo

go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price

but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK

tim
R. Mark Clayton
2017-08-05 11:52:06 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.

Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Norman Wells
2017-08-05 13:05:44 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
R. Mark Clayton
2017-08-07 19:09:06 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Norman Wells
2017-08-07 20:18:46 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.

So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
R. Mark Clayton
2017-08-07 20:38:19 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
SNIP

... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in the UK and then sold here.

However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at ~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).

So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so. The result is that if you want to buy salmon in the UK it will (and does) cost you 10-20% more just because of the exchange rate situation. Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Norman Wells
2017-08-07 20:48:05 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at ~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so.
But he can't. If the pound has fallen by 10% against the Euro or the US
Dollar, his customers will pay 10% less in their own currency for his
salmon, but he will receive exactly the same amount in pounds as he ever
did.

It's how it works.


The result is that if you want to buy salmon in the UK it will (and
does) cost you 10-20% more just because of the exchange rate situation.
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in
the shops are not uncommon...
tim...
2017-08-08 08:13:01 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock
and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the
moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK
consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have
actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the
price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in
the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at
~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of
the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is
shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so.
But he can't. If the pound has fallen by 10% against the Euro or the US
Dollar, his customers will pay 10% less in their own currency for his
salmon, but he will receive exactly the same amount in pounds as he ever
did.
It's how it works.
no it's not

agricultural goods on the worldwide open market will be priced in dollars,
or some other currency based upon the dominant production. The UK produces
circa 10% of the world's salmon so will not be dominant enough to dictate
the world wholesale price.

So, if your exchange rate against that currency falls, the price of these
world products will increase, even if you do produce them at home

tim
R. Mark Clayton
2017-08-08 11:08:24 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock
and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the
moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK
consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have
actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the
price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in
the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at
~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of
the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is
shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so.
But he can't. If the pound has fallen by 10% against the Euro or the US
Dollar, his customers will pay 10% less in their own currency for his
salmon, but he will receive exactly the same amount in pounds as he ever
did.
No they will pay the same (very nearly) and he will get 11% more in pounds (>20% more when the pound was at its lowest).
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
It's how it works.
no it's not
agricultural goods on the worldwide open market will be priced in dollars,
or some other currency based upon the dominant production. The UK produces
circa 10% of the world's salmon so will not be dominant enough to dictate
the world wholesale price.
So, if your exchange rate against that currency falls, the price of these
world products will increase, even if you do produce them at home
tim
Thanks Tim, maybe Norman should buy a copy of
http://www.dummies.com/education/economics/economics-for-dummies-cheat-sheet-uk-edition/

BTW when do you think the pound will fall below the Euro?
Norman Wells
2017-08-08 13:23:00 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock
and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the
moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK
consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have
actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the
price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in
the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at
~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of
the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is
shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so.
But he can't. If the pound has fallen by 10% against the Euro or the US
Dollar, his customers will pay 10% less in their own currency for his
salmon, but he will receive exactly the same amount in pounds as he ever
did.
No they will pay the same (very nearly) and he will get 11% more in pounds (>20% more when the pound was at its lowest).
They will pay the same in pounds since that's what they've always paid
in. Asking for 10% more in pounds looks like a 10% increase in price
that may well be completely unacceptable.
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
It's how it works.
no it's not
agricultural goods on the worldwide open market will be priced in dollars,
or some other currency based upon the dominant production. The UK produces
circa 10% of the world's salmon so will not be dominant enough to dictate
the world wholesale price.
So, if your exchange rate against that currency falls, the price of these
world products will increase, even if you do produce them at home
tim
Thanks Tim, maybe Norman should buy a copy of
http://www.dummies.com/education/economics/economics-for-dummies-cheat-sheet-uk-edition/
BTW when do you think the pound will fall below the Euro?
I'm sorry, my crystal ball has a faulty USB socket.

If you know when (or even if) it will be, you could make your fortune
and you'd be daft not to.
MM
2017-08-09 06:23:42 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
and you'd be daft not to.
Oh?

I thought you didn't like "speculators", and now you're encouraging
them!

MM

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Norman Wells
2017-08-09 08:09:35 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
and you'd be daft not to.
Oh?
I thought you didn't like "speculators", and now you're encouraging
them!
It was conditional on his knowing when or if the pound would achieve
parity with the Euro. That wouldn't be speculating but investing.
MM
2017-08-10 10:26:30 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
and you'd be daft not to.
Oh?
I thought you didn't like "speculators", and now you're encouraging
them!
It was conditional on his knowing when or if the pound would achieve
parity with the Euro. That wouldn't be speculating but investing.
So speculators are investors now?

Why is that a bad thing?

MM

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Norman Wells
2017-08-10 11:02:35 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
and you'd be daft not to.
Oh?
I thought you didn't like "speculators", and now you're encouraging
them!
It was conditional on his knowing when or if the pound would achieve
parity with the Euro. That wouldn't be speculating but investing.
So speculators are investors now?
Why is that a bad thing?
It's not speculating or gambling if you know the outcome. If you don't,
it is.
Martin Brown
2017-08-10 12:32:04 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
and you'd be daft not to.
Oh?
I thought you didn't like "speculators", and now you're encouraging
them!
It was conditional on his knowing when or if the pound would achieve
parity with the Euro. That wouldn't be speculating but investing.
So speculators are investors now?
Why is that a bad thing?
It's not speculating or gambling if you know the outcome.
No. It is called insider trading - sort of thing hedge funds like to do
or the good folks who rig libor rates. It doesn't make it right though.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/libor-scandal/

SFO couldn't actually make the charges stick but I expect the other side
had very much better lawyers working for them.
Post by Norman Wells
If you don't,
it is.
It might be arbitrage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage#Conditions_for_arbitrage
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
Ian Jackson
2017-08-10 13:03:43 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
and you'd be daft not to.
Oh?
I thought you didn't like "speculators", and now you're encouraging
them!
It was conditional on his knowing when or if the pound would achieve
parity with the Euro. That wouldn't be speculating but investing.
So speculators are investors now?
Why is that a bad thing?
It's not speculating or gambling if you know the outcome. If you
don't, it is.
Apart from knowing (in general terms) that we are going to leave the EU,
the Brexiteers don't know any details of the outcome. I reckon that
makes them speculators and gamblers, rather than, say, 'visionaries'.
--
Ian
harry
2017-08-09 07:59:57 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at ~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so.
But he can't. If the pound has fallen by 10% against the Euro or the US
Dollar, his customers will pay 10% less in their own currency for his
salmon, but he will receive exactly the same amount in pounds as he ever
did.
It's how it works.
The result is that if you want to buy salmon in the UK it will (and
does) cost you 10-20% more just because of the exchange rate situation.
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in
the shops are not uncommon...
The food farmed salmon are fed is largely imported.
Fredxxx
2017-08-08 00:22:20 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
<snip>
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
MM
2017-08-08 06:48:46 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Fredxxx
<snip>
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.

MM

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Norman Wells
2017-08-08 08:41:24 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.

But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
tim...
2017-08-08 09:20:22 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in
the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas at the
higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to pay for home
consumption

tim
Norman Wells
2017-08-08 10:50:45 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40%
in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas at
the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to pay for
home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do with
Brexit or the exchange rate.
tim...
2017-08-08 13:02:29 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in
the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas at the
higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to pay for home
consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do with
Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree

but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though those
goods are wholly produced at home.

If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds

the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds

if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90 pounds, He
sells at home for 90 pounds

Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity value has
(and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So that's the price
he sells at

tim
Norman Wells
2017-08-08 13:33:51 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to
40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas at
the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to pay
for home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do with
Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though
those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90 pounds, He
sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity value
has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So that's
the price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at that
price already?

But it isn't of course, because he's in competition with other
suppliers. If they continue to sell at £80, he won't be able to sell
his at £90. And a lot will because they don't have a ready export market.
tim...
2017-08-08 14:35:53 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40%
in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas at
the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to pay
for home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do with
Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though
those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90 pounds, He
sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity value
has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So that's the
price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at that
price already?
in the ROW it is

it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here

and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant, which with
salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up

tim
Norman Wells
2017-08-08 15:51:52 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to
40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will
be affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price
of salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here
in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas
at the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to
pay for home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do with
Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though
those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90 pounds,
He sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity
value has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So
that's the price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at that
price already?
in the ROW it is
it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here
and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant, which
with salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up
No we don't. While there are domestic producers who do not export but
only sell in the UK, they will continue to sell at established UK
prices. They are in competition with each other, so can't increase
their prices unilaterally without losing substantial sales.

Similarly, those with an export market, if they wish to sell in the UK,
will have to sell at established UK prices.

UK prices of UK produced goods are unaffected by exchange rates.
tim...
2017-08-08 18:59:36 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to
40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will be
affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price of
salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas at
the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have to pay
for home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do with
Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though
those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90 pounds,
He sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity value
has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So that's
the price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at that
price already?
in the ROW it is
it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here
and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant, which
with salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up
No we don't. While there are domestic producers who do not export but
only sell in the UK, they will continue to sell at established UK
If you can find such a product

but in what world is there an agricultural product that UK farmers don't
look to export at some point in the growing cycle?

we may not be self sufficient in food, but we also have a (relatively) short
growing season

I doubt that there is a crop that you can name where we don't have an excess
at some point in the season

tim
Norman Wells
2017-08-08 21:12:07 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30
to 40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will
be affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the
price of salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and
sold here in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling
overseas at the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that
people have to pay for home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do
with Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even
though those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90
pounds, He sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity
value has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has).
So that's the price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at
that price already?
in the ROW it is
it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here
and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant,
which with salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up
No we don't. While there are domestic producers who do not export but
only sell in the UK, they will continue to sell at established UK
If you can find such a product
but in what world is there an agricultural product that UK farmers don't
look to export at some point in the growing cycle?
In any world where the producer can't supply domestic demand. Why
export, with all the problems involved, when you have domestic demand
exceeding your ability to supply?
Post by tim...
we may not be self sufficient in food, but we also have a (relatively)
short growing season
I doubt that there is a crop that you can name where we don't have an
excess at some point in the season
An excess over what? Most crops can be stored. And most crops don't
meet domestic demand. We produce only enough to feed 60% of the population.
Fredxxx
2017-08-08 22:12:37 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Fredxxx
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to
40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Are you suggesting Brexit introduced the sea louse epidemic, and caused
the price of salmon to rise?
Not the sea louse problem, but the price, certainly. And smoked salmon
is not the only product that has been affected by Brexit and the
exchange rate, as millions of householders are now finding out. Even
petrol is rising again.
Supply and demand mainly, though anything priced in dollars will
be affected by the pound-dollar exchange rate.
But do tell us how Brexit and the exchange rate affects the price
of salmon which is produced here, priced in pounds and sold here
in pounds.
because where the suppliers do have the option of selling overseas
at the higher price, it *does* bit up the price that people have
to pay for home consumption
That's straightforward supply and demand. It has nothing to do
with Brexit or the exchange rate.
Brexit I agree
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though
those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90
pounds, He sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity
value has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So
that's the price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at that
price already?
in the ROW it is
it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here
and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant, which
with salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up
No we don't. While there are domestic producers who do not export but
only sell in the UK, they will continue to sell at established UK
prices. They are in competition with each other, so can't increase
their prices unilaterally without losing substantial sales.
Similarly, those with an export market, if they wish to sell in the UK,
will have to sell at established UK prices.
UK prices of UK produced goods are unaffected by exchange rates.
If there is a would market in UK reared salmon, then the exchange rate
will affect the UK price.

Currently the dominant cause of the upward price of salmon is the sea louse.
Martin Brown
2017-08-09 07:32:46 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
but it shows how the ER changes the local price of goods even though
those goods are wholly produced at home.
If the world price for a tonne of potatoes is 100 Euro or 80 pounds
the local price the farmer charges is 80 pounds
if the ER changes and the world price at 100 Euro becomes 90 pounds,
He sells at home for 90 pounds
Even if his costs of production haven't gone up, the opportunity
value has (and the cost of the alternative imported supply has). So
that's the price he sells at
If it's what the market will bear, why hasn't he been selling at that
price already?
in the ROW it is
it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here
and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant, which
with salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up
No we don't. While there are domestic producers who do not export but
only sell in the UK, they will continue to sell at established UK
prices. They are in competition with each other, so can't increase
their prices unilaterally without losing substantial sales.
Once the exchange rate makes it favourable for them to export then
enough growers will do so that the law of supply and demand will drive
up domestic prices too. Goods will be in short supply domestically.

If the exchange rate changed radically then *all* the goods would be
exported if farmers could say double their income by doing so.

How short some peoples memories are! It was only a few months ago that
there was a famine of courgettes and other warm climate fruits.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/courgette-shortage-uk-vegetable-shortage-cold-weather-ispain-italy-europe-continent-a7533236.html

The farm produce prices are volatile and subject to availability.
Post by Norman Wells
Similarly, those with an export market, if they wish to sell in the UK,
will have to sell at established UK prices.
No. They will be able to charge more because the export of a proportion
of the goods will create a scarcity in the UK market.

Did they teach you nothing of supply and demand economics?
Post by Norman Wells
UK prices of UK produced goods are unaffected by exchange rates.
We'll see. So much of what we "manufacture" in the UK depends on
components priced in Euro or Dollars that price rises are inevitable.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
Norman Wells
2017-08-09 08:24:38 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Martin Brown
Post by Norman Wells
Post by tim...
it's just the UK ER has made it more expensive here
and if we aren't a big enough market or supplier to be dominant,
which with salmon we are not, we just have to suck it up
No we don't. While there are domestic producers who do not export but
only sell in the UK, they will continue to sell at established UK
prices. They are in competition with each other, so can't increase
their prices unilaterally without losing substantial sales.
Once the exchange rate makes it favourable for them to export then
enough growers will do so that the law of supply and demand will drive
up domestic prices too. Goods will be in short supply domestically.
If the exchange rate changed radically then *all* the goods would be
exported if farmers could say double their income by doing so.
It's not that easy though. It takes time to set up an exporting
organisation and contacts. You can't just turn it on like a tap.

Of course a fall in the exchange rate encourages exports by making our
producers more competitive. But to benefit from that increased
competitiveness they have to keep their prices low.

Exchange rates don't change radically enough to make any sudden
differences to commerce.
Post by Martin Brown
How short some peoples memories are! It was only a few months ago that
there was a famine of courgettes and other warm climate fruits.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/courgette-shortage-uk-vegetable-shortage-cold-weather-ispain-italy-europe-continent-a7533236.html
The farm produce prices are volatile and subject to availability.
That's straightforward supply and demand, though, nothing to do with
exchange rates.
Post by Martin Brown
Post by Norman Wells
Similarly, those with an export market, if they wish to sell in the
UK, will have to sell at established UK prices.
No. They will be able to charge more because the export of a proportion
of the goods will create a scarcity in the UK market.
Did they teach you nothing of supply and demand economics?
Post by Norman Wells
UK prices of UK produced goods are unaffected by exchange rates.
We'll see. So much of what we "manufacture" in the UK depends on
components priced in Euro or Dollars that price rises are inevitable.
In time, everything equalises. Exchange rates settle down too.

But I don't think salmon production relies too much on Euros or dollars,
so I don't think any current price rises in the shops, which is what
people have been complaining about, are due to the exchange rate. Or
Brexit, which is what they'd love us to believe.
MM
2017-08-08 06:46:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
On Mon, 7 Aug 2017 13:38:19 -0700 (PDT), "R. Mark Clayton"
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at ~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so. The result is that if you want to buy salmon in the UK it will (and does) cost you 10-20% more just because of the exchange rate situation. Factor in an unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in the shops are not uncommon...
Smoked salmon slices from Morrisions now cost £41 a kilo. But I still
buy the 60g pack occasionally, as I love the stuff.

MM

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tim...
2017-08-08 08:13:47 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
On Mon, 7 Aug 2017 13:38:19 -0700 (PDT), "R. Mark Clayton"
Post by R. Mark Clayton
SNIP
... as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock
and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the
moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK
consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have
actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the
price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
There is no foreign exchange involved if the fish is farmed or caught in
the UK and then sold here.
However salmon can be shipped fresh, frozen, smoked or even tinned and at
~£10 per kilo the transport cost will not be that great a proportion of
the price, unlike say potatoes (say 25p/kg).
So Tavish McFish, seeing he can get 10% or more extra if his salmon is
shipped to continental Europe or even the USA arranges to do so. The
result is that if you want to buy salmon in the UK it will (and does) cost
you 10-20% more just because of the exchange rate situation. Factor in an
unfortunate sea louse epidemic and rises of 30 to 40% in the shops are not
uncommon...
Smoked salmon slices from Morrisions now cost £41 a kilo. But I still
buy the 60g pack occasionally, as I love the stuff.
ITYF that the reference is to raw salmon

tim
Dean Jackson
2017-08-07 23:50:13 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so
cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and
ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for
cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be
high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well
leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has
say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the
fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the
moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK
consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have
actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the
price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
Salmon is now Scotland's biggest export. Sadly the salmon farms are
mainly Norwegian owned
D.J.
tim...
2017-08-08 08:17:34 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot
better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so
cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo
low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for
cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be
high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well
leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has
say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the
fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the
moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK
consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have
actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the
price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
Salmon is now Scotland's biggest export. Sadly the salmon farms are mainly
Norwegian owned
quite apart from the fact that you need to provide proof of that claim

why does it matter?

They can't relocate the factory back home, can they

tim
MM
2017-08-08 06:43:32 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
You stated the reason yourself:

"Indeed, we export quite a lot." you said.

If salmon exporters can get a better price by selling the stuff
abroad, since there's only a finite amount to go round, some shortages
here will be inevitable, thus pushing up the domestic price.

MM

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Norman Wells
2017-08-08 08:37:53 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
"Indeed, we export quite a lot." you said.
If salmon exporters can get a better price by selling the stuff
abroad, since there's only a finite amount to go round, some shortages
here will be inevitable, thus pushing up the domestic price.
That's simple supply and demand. It has nothing to do with Brexit.

Do please tell us all how the exchange rate affects the price of stuff
produced in the UK and sold in the UK.
R. Mark Clayton
2017-08-08 11:14:17 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
"Indeed, we export quite a lot." you said.
If salmon exporters can get a better price by selling the stuff
abroad, since there's only a finite amount to go round, some shortages
here will be inevitable, thus pushing up the domestic price.
That's simple supply and demand. It has nothing to do with Brexit.
Do please tell us all how the exchange rate affects the price of stuff
produced in the UK and sold in the UK.
I thought I had done this already.

Tavish McFish farms or catches his salmon in Scotland and normally sends it to Billingsgate [fish market] he gets paid say £10/kg.

The pound falls, so now he sends it to Rungis [fish market in Paris] and receives Eu12/kg. Before the pound fell this would only have given him £10/kg less transport and and Fx costs, so no benefit, but now this gets him £11 and increased profit. Imagine you are Tavish - what would you do?
Norman Wells
2017-08-08 13:17:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by MM
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by Norman Wells
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
Are you trying to tell us the heresy that there are factors other than
Brexit?
Of course there are factors other than Brexit, it is just that at the moment the pound's fall is a very big factor. Fortunately for UK consumers the price of crude oil has slipped so petrol prices have actually fallen because the price in dollars has fallen more than the price of the dollars it is priced in.
Tell us more about salmon then. You see, nearly all of what we consume
here in the UK is produced here. Indeed, we export quite a lot.
So, how does the pound falling affect the price here where no foreign
exchange is involved.
"Indeed, we export quite a lot." you said.
If salmon exporters can get a better price by selling the stuff
abroad, since there's only a finite amount to go round, some shortages
here will be inevitable, thus pushing up the domestic price.
That's simple supply and demand. It has nothing to do with Brexit.
Do please tell us all how the exchange rate affects the price of stuff
produced in the UK and sold in the UK.
I thought I had done this already.
Tavish McFish farms or catches his salmon in Scotland and normally sends it to Billingsgate [fish market] he gets paid say £10/kg.
The pound falls, so now he sends it to Rungis [fish market in Paris] and receives Eu12/kg.
But he won't. The French aren't daft. They will say "we 'ave bin on,
'ow you say, ze telephone, and ze market price is £10/kg. We ain't
payin' a penny more, git yer luvverly cockles 'ere darlin".

So, the price is £10 take it or leave it, or 11 Euros and do your own
exchange.
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Before the pound fell this would only have given him £10/kg less transport and and Fx costs, so no benefit, but now this gets him £11 and increased profit. Imagine you are Tavish - what would you do?
Deal with the salt of the earth at Billingsgate.
Dean Jackson
2017-08-07 23:47:11 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers, so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead to big price rises in the UK.
If you like Victoria Plums they are now in the shops. What continental
plum can compare to them ?
D.J.
tim...
2017-08-08 08:19:22 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Dean Jackson
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so
cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low
prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers,
so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are
costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high
wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where
a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead
to big price rises in the UK.
If you like Victoria Plums they are now in the shops. What continental
plum can compare to them ?
dunno

but the last time I bought plums they tasted of, um, not very much

Another fruit where the taste has been engineered out as a result of the
quest for greater yield

tim
Ophelia
2017-08-08 09:02:43 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Dean Jackson
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
Cost of transport usually. Green beans do grow in the UK, but a lot better in Spain.
Cauliflowers grow in both places, but we have had a wet summer, so
cauliflowers here will have grown very well - so good supply and ergo low
prices, whereas Spain has had a drought, which is bad for cauliflowers,
so fewer smaller cauliflowers and so prices will be high. They are
costly to transport and tend not to travel too well leading to high
wastage otherwise the price would even out as it has say for salmon where
a combination of disease in the stock and the fall in the pound has lead
to big price rises in the UK.
If you like Victoria Plums they are now in the shops. What continental
plum can compare to them ?
dunno

but the last time I bought plums they tasted of, um, not very much

Another fruit where the taste has been engineered out as a result of the
quest for greater yield

tim

==

Which is the very reason I grow my own. Not much of an answer for you but I
am just agreeing.
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk
kat
2017-08-08 20:18:47 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by Dean Jackson
If you like Victoria Plums they are now in the shops. What continental
plum can compare to them ?
dunno
but the last time I bought plums they tasted of, um, not very much
Another fruit where the taste has been engineered out as a result of the
quest for greater yield
You may have bought those foreign varieties. Our Victorias still taste
like plums. It's the same with strawberries I find. British ones
have flavour, those from abroad even in season are bigger but tasteless.
--
kat
Post by tim...
^..^<
harry
2017-08-09 07:58:09 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by tim...
Post by R. Mark Clayton
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
MM
Even when I was a teenager (er long ago) there were pick your own
strawberry farms, because the low cost labour to pick them scarce.
There might be some wastage, but the likeliest result is just higher
prices in the shops - well probably already is because things like salad
veg from Spain have to be paid for in 10% more expensive Euros.
The price of veg around the world is strange, and seems to bear no
relationship to costs
One of the things that gets me is the ludicrously high price of green beans
at 4 pound per kilo
go to Spain and they are a quarter of that price
but the cauliflowers are three time the price of the UK
tim
It's down to the climate shit-fer-brains.
Fredxxx
2017-08-05 18:16:26 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
"Farms in the UK rely on fruit and vegetable pickers from the European
Union. But this summer they’re staying away, and the harvest will be
hit.
Smart farmers will be changing to less labour intensive crops.

Or should have considered having to pay the going rate for seasonal
labour. At the right rate I'd be happy to pick his fruit and vegetables.
People like you will be too lazy to do so at any rate.

Next??
harry
2017-08-09 07:56:27 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by MM
Summary: A crisis is mounting.
"Farms in the UK rely on fruit and vegetable pickers from the European
Union. But this summer they’re staying away, and the harvest will be
hit
"In the wake of an ocean of writing linking Brexit to the zeitgeisty
Dunkirk spirit, here’s one more martial metaphor. Self-evidently, this
is the phoney war stage of the process. Negotiations have barely
started; the prime minister is on holiday. Most importantly, the
fragile tangle of threads that defines what passes for Britain’s
economic wellbeing -- that mixture of affordable essentials, freely
available credit and dependable house prices which ensures no one gets
too uppity about stagnating wages -- just about remains intact.
Meanwhile, ministers -- and Labour politicians -- talk about the
fundamentals of leaving the European Union as if we can push Brussels
in any direction we fancy and freely choose no end of measures to ease
our passage out.
"The recent noise about freedom of movement is a case in point. If the
government has a coherent position, it seems to be that migration from
the EU under current rules will end in 2019, but also carry on, with
-- according to the home secretary, anyway -- the proviso that during
an 'implementation phase' of up to four years, people from the EU will
simply have to add their names to a national register. Thus, a great
human army which keeps so much of Britain’s economy ticking over will
still be available, just as long as the right arrangements are put in
place.
"This is, of course, somewhat less than credible, as evidenced by a
mounting crisis that has yet to turn critical but is bubbling away
across the country. At the very least, we are fundamentally changing
the basis on which people can live and work in the UK, swapping
residence as a right for a much more uncertain system dependent on
political caprice.
"If you wanted to be more dramatic, you might say that the 2016
European referendum in effect put a huge neon sign over Britain,
saying, 'Foreigners not welcome'. And to make matters worse, the value
of sterling is making coming here even less attractive.
" 'The perception from overseas is we are xenophobic, we’re racist,
and the pound has plummeted too. We’ve gone with Brexit and that makes
us look unfriendly.' Those are the words of John Hardman, director of
Hops Labour Solutions, which supplies about 12,000 workers a year to
food-growers. He reckons that when it comes to 'food-picking jobs in
agriculture -- which means everything from strawberries to brussels
sprouts', there is currently a Brexit-related shortfall of about 20%,
which chimes with recent surveys by the National Farmers Union."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/05/brexit-uk-food-industry-eu-fruit-veg-pickers
And even if we decided one way or another to stay in, the damage has
already been done. Those pickers from the EU will likely stay away for
years to come, irrespective of what kind of -- or any -- Brexit
there is. Until at least signs appear that the natives are friendly.
MM
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